One component of left-handedness that came to mind as a result of my recent post on La Russa’s lineups is how the Cardinals rosters have been composed over time. Here I looked at season-opening 25-man rosters since Tony La Russa arrived in St. Louis prior to the 1996 campaign.
First, we’ll look at the composition of the pitching staff from the left side.
| Opening roster | 96-08 avg | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 |
| LH rotation | 0.8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| LH relief | 2.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
With the departure of Mark Mulder and the Tommy John surgery of Jaime Garcia, the Cardinals lack a credible left-handed starter either at the major league level or the high levels of the system. As a result, it seems assured the club will not have a left-handed pitcher in the rotation in 2009, certainly not to start the season without a trade.
The season-opening relief corps almost always consists of two lefties. The last time the Cards came north with three was in 2005, when Bill Pulsipher lasted just a few weeks. Conversely, 1998 was the only season in which La Russa’s club began the season with a sole lefty in the pen.
Now, let’s switch gears to the hitters on opening day rosters, starting with the left-handers.
| Opening roster | 96-08 avg | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 |
| Lefty-hitting starters | 2.5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Lefty-hitting reserves | 1.3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Lefty-hitting total | 3.8 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Despite averaging about four left-handed hitters per season since 1996, the Cardinals have had only three starting each of the last four seasons. Given the perception of having glut of left-handed hitting outfielders, this surprised me a bit.
Of course, there are other left-handed hitters on the roster – those that switch hit.
| Opening roster | 96-08 avg | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 |
| Switch-hitting starters | 0.4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Switch-hitting reserves | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| SH total | 1.4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
In four of the last five years, the Cardinals have had a pair of switch-hitters available, either on the bench or in the starting lineup.
Putting the two together provides a compete view of the left-handed hitting options available on the Cardinals in recent seasons.
| Opening roster | 96-08 avg | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998 | 1997 | 1996 |
| LH/SH starters | 2.9 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| LH/SH reserves | 2.3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| LH/SH total | 5.2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
With a 13-year average of 5.2 left-handed or switch-hitting batters on the season-opening rosters, recent years have been fairly consistent. Note that 2008 had four left-handed capable hitting starters, the most since 2002.
Now that we have that bit of history established, let’s compare this to the likely make-up of the 2009 Cardinals. The forecasts below are from my camp-opening projections, run on Scout.com (details are subscriber only).
| Opening roster | 96-08 avg | 2009 forecast | Names | Other possibilities |
| LH rotation | 0.8 | 0 | ||
| LH relief | 2.1 | 2 | Miller, Ring | Manning, Ostlund |
There’s not much mystique in the pitching category. As noted above, there are no left-handed starters in contention for a job. Among the relievers, Royce Ring may or may not be replaced by Charlie Manning, but unless Trever Miller is hurt, only one of the pair should be on the opening day roster.
| Opening roster | 96-08 avg | 2009 forecast | Names | Other possibilities |
| Lefty-hitting starters | 2.5 | 2 | Ankiel, Schumaker | Rasmus |
| Lefty-hitting reserves | 1.3 | 2 | Duncan, Thurston | |
| Lefty-hitting total | 3.8 | 4 |
In terms of left-handed hitters, the long-term average of four may be met through a pair of starters and two reserves. I understand Colby Rasmus could break his way onto the club, but I submit that the total would probably remain the same, as Joe Thurston would be the likely roster casualty (see Skip Schumaker at second base dominoes).
Note that if Jon Jay could force his way into the outfield mix, it would probably be at the expense of Rasmus/Thurston. As of now, Rasmus and Thurston are the only left-handed hitters in camp who seemed to be in the mix for a job other than the three outfield holdovers from last season. Third baseman Brett Wallace and catcher Bryan Anderson is the other left-handed hitters in camp, but the latter has no chance without an injury to Yadier Molina or Jason LaRue and the former’s odds are even less.
The situation is not nearly as good with switch-hitters, however.
| Opening roster | 96-08 avg | 2009 forecast | Names | Other possibilities |
| Switch-hitting starters | 0.4 | 0 | none | none |
| Switch-hitting reserves | 1.0 | 0 | none | none |
| SH total | 1.4 | 0 |
As you can see, there is really nothing to say. Recent switch-hitters Aaron Miles, Cesar Izturis and Scott Spiezio are gone, replaced by no one. Of the 35 position players in 2009 spring training camp, not a single one hits from both sides of the plate. So there are no long-shots around that could break through.
If the 2009 season begins this way, it will be the first Cardinals club since 2003 without a switch-hitter either in the opening lineup or on the bench.
For completeness, here is the left-handed plus switch-hitting forecast for 2009.
| Opening roster | 96-08 average | 2009 forecast |
| LH/SH starters | 2.9 | 2 |
| LH/SH reserves | 2.3 | 2 |
| LH/SH total | 5.2 | 4 |
Without a trade to bring in a switch-hitter, it appears that La Russa will have less lineup flexibility and in-game pinch-hitting match-up options in 2009 compared to past seasons. Four hitters capable of hitting left-handed would tie 2007 for the Cardinals’ lowest total since 1999.
I doubt La Russa will go as far as asking his opponent to loan him a switch-hitter to pinch hit, but the skipper probably won’t like being restricted in his numerous in-game maneuvers, either.
In the next report, I will look at left-handed pitching from the Cardinals opponents’ perspective.
Related article: “La Russa’s lineups – a historical view”
Though I like lefty swingers, I am unconcerned about a short-fall. Ankiel, Duncan, and Schumacker are around. Behind them Jay and Rasmus; overall depth of left swinging OFs seems good. Anderson provides a left swinging catcher one rung away. Jones, Descalso, and Henely are training two rungs away.
Kennedy is gone, yet Thurston is available. We cut Adam only after acquiring Thurston. This may not have been a co-incidence.
Mitey Cesar is no more, yet Khalil offers more offensive potential.
The change is Miles replaced by Ryan or Barden most likely. Miles hit nicely for average, but may have had a career peak in 2008.
In 2004 spring training TLR said Bo Hart needed to learn to switch-hit. For Bo, this might have been frustrating, because its hard to learn to switch-hit at the ML level. A year later, the Cards equipped TLR with Aaron Miles.
With the switch-hitting during the Herzog years — Smith, Pendleton, McGee, Herr, Coleman — plus Templeton and Simmons at an earlier time, its nice when a Cards team has some switch-hitters. Spiezio, Miles, Nunez were recent upholders of the tradition. Izturis seems more a switch-misser.
I like Colby. I want to see him sucseed. I predicted, and I think it has come to pass, that DeWitt has been ramming Colby up Tony’s rear end. Tony, for Tony’s reasons doesn’t like it. What your seeing now is Tony at the wheel and under control. I have never seen a player go 0/5 0/6 in a spring training game. Especially with the number of outfielders that are around. Those guys work out for 3 our 4 hrs, before they go play a game. They are often pretty dogged by then. Tony is watching and letting Colby play his way out of a job that was his to take. If someone is hitting, you say nice job sit down. If they are struggling, you say “sit down and hit the cages or take some extra swings in the morning. I haven’t seen an at bat, or heard anything about this other than what I’ve read, but I see whats going on. Tony is resolving bench interference from the front office. Colby is just the pull toy for this power struggle thats going on. His opportunities are diminishing fast now because Tony can do what he likes with Colby’s current momentum. I don’t like whats happening as a fan. If he didn’t come ready to play as RC suggests, he may not this year. This was his break.
A manager can give at bats to a player and then will him into a slump? Not likely.
In any event, Rasmus will probably heat up. How will you explain that?
TLR has made loads of money. He does not need to manage. Nobody is going to force Rasmus on Tony. At the end of spring training, the Cards will carefully choose a roster, balancing a lot of factors. We shall see how it turns out.
WC, we’re not even a week into a five-week spring training…
TLR is not holding the bat for Colby or catching the balls or making the throws. I’ve only seen one spring game so far, but in that game, Rasmus looked green. In today’s game, Colby only received one AB. Does that mean TLR is burying him by giving him only one chance to hit? One can apply a spin to anything.
If Rasmus ends up having to go to Triple-A for awhile, it wouldn’t be the end of the world.
Come on Jumbo. Not here. I don’t think he will heat up. 0/6 is seeing ML pitching and anyone else who came. You’re not helping him by watching him struggle. Tony is dealing with it in his own way. He is burying him. You know that this is just the beginning of the conflict. At this rate, Colby will be in the AAA camp as soon as it opens. Why obscure the point you see that I’m making with, whats your motivation WC, or why would Tony do that, Tony and BD are just like brothers. When is the last time you saw anyone take 5 or 6 at bats in February?
WC, I don’t think you need to worry about anybody trying to obscure a point you’re making. You do a fine job of that, yourself.
Give us a break with the conspiracy stuff, okay?
Brian, my observation is that Tony is doing a few unusual things. I would guess that Mo said, ” we want Colby to have as many at bats as possible”. Tony sees the situation and then over exposes Colby in difficult situations. 0/6 doesn’t happen at this time of the year. Thats bad coaching. If there is a competition in mid March, fine. Colby is the future. I want to see him, not Chris Duncan. Tony wants to be able to platoon Chris and that would be difficult with Colby in center. I’ve have noted earlier Tony’s frustration with defending Akiel as a good CF to the press. This conflict is happening. We lose if Shu end up at second base. I have no doubt about that. These events are all connected. Tony is creating situation whose solutions are to his liking.
Dizzy, what conspiracy. There are many paths to an ending. If you think there isn’t a lot of tension between Management and TL, what are you watching and reading. Albert’s comments recently were directly influenced by Tony. They are both unhappy with management.
One other thing. I post here as WCBW. I know Jumbeau. I really don’t do conspiracy, especially here. So why is it that your tag isn’t recognized by me as someone from the Bird House? Whats with you guys?
I haven’t been a regular poster at the Birdhouse for more than a year now. One of the biggest reasons I no longer post there is the Jerry Springer Show-like atmosphere over there. I do lurk there occasionally.
I would like to discuss Cardinal baseball without being bombarded by comments that DeWitt is cheap or that TLR is an idiot or that Mo doesn’t know what he’s doing. You’ve indicated what you believe many times and you’re on record with that. I would simply prefer that you let those “predictions” come to pass without feeling the need to tell us every time you post about what you “see” or “know” that we mere mortals don’t.
DeWitt is on a self imposed budget, for a reason. Tony is handling his problems with a deft hand as I was describing. Mo is a nice guy with little or no power. Those are the facts. No need to comment on that. That is the extent that I will talk about those issues. Let it go. At times, those truths actually puncture the fabric of your baseball world. They are all related believe it or not.
WC wrote:
“Those are the facts. No need to comment on that. That is the extent that I will talk about those issues. Let it go.”
Fixed.
Thank you for understanding Dizzy.
WC, you make mountains out of ant hills. As Brian said, we are not even 20 percent of the way into ST. Its best to keep an open mind.
Albert is not unhappy. You believe he is, but you over-interpret.
Rasmus is swinging his own bat. He will warm up. TLR has nothing to do with it.
You imagine Rasmus cannot go 0 for 6. Anyone can go 0 for 6. (Please do not divulge that you think this is odd.)
Every team has a budget. The economy is experiencing a decline that will be remembered by historians. Accordingly, the Cardinals are being prudent with their discretionary spending.
I think you guys are missing my point,(my fault) I am merely pointing out that there is maneuvering going on. I’ve seen enough early spring training games to recognize the oddity of anyone taking six at bats. The results are irrelevant, unless its 0/6. Might be testing his mental strength……doubt it. The at-bats are irrelevent in relationship to exploring the casues for the
O -fer. Thats why you don’t see 6 at bats in spring training this early, except in this case. Tony was pissed at the pressure being put on him from the Press concerning Ankiels supposed unworthiness to play CF this week, in the local paper I think. I don’t sense any confusion about Ankiels status now. After the 0/4 and the 0/6 by Colby.
The Kennedy statements along with Tony’s interpretation I find interesting. There is a little more play in that anyone is talking about. Also the complete irrelevance of Albert’s opting out of the game with the Dominicans is laughable. I’m surprised no one sees the humor in that. Its a game for christ sakes. He really wanted to play in that tourney I think. There is more there than just MLB insurance policies. The financial stuff is way over your pay-grade Jumbo. Its not for me, by the purest coincidences. Its a funny life some times. Happiness is relative. Albert doesn’t sound happy to me.
WC: Wasn’t Barton also 0 for 6? This apparently prepared him to hit 2 homers and collect 6 ribbies in the next game. If I followed your line of thinking, I would ponder what caused Barton to go 0 for 6 and then what caused him to have a big game? By your thinking, TLR is a master Machiavel and played a part in both. In my mind, Barton is a toolsy guy who likes to make contact and hit to opposite field, such that by doing so, the law over averages caught up and helped him.
Baseball is played March through September, 7 months. Players need self discipline to pace themselves, pitch by pitch, through a long season. In the fullness of time, many things can become apparent or change. Its good for fans to pace themselves too.
WC, I get your point that you find something evil lurking in every decision. You are simply beating it to death and I really, sincerely wish we could discuss baseball here instead of your paranoia fed mysteries.
Not 0/6 in one game Jumbo. Have at it Dizzy. I do see you point though. It was completely in character for BD to release a 4million dollar player out of know where, so there could be that wide open competition at 2nd base that we’re enjoying. And Tony taking responsibility for the whole thing. Sounds plausible. Or, the result of an interesting negotiation concerning Colby and Shu. I wonder sometimes.
TLR respects vets, so did not want to subject Kennedy to a wide open competition, which would be like asking AK to watch his own funeral.
If Schumacker can’t handle 2B, he moves back to the OF and Rasmus plays at Memphis.
This past offseason the Cards tried to trade for Holliday; tried to sign Fuentes; and released Kennedy. Mo and TLR working in harmony.
WC, all this stuff with Bill DeWitt and TLR is too simple-minded. Its beneath your pay grade, why these guys throw you off, with their antics.
In my imagination, I can see you hanging out at the Rodin Museum in Paris, gazing at the famous sculpture of the thinker (while you quietly hope a stylish mademoiselle will see you as cerebral and say howdy, or bonjour as they do over there, across the pond). This seems your proper milieu.
Spring training with the Cards is low-brow. Outfielders playing infield. Infielders playing OF. Pujols happy or is he unhappy? TLR wanting to borrow pitchers from the Orioles. Pineiro sore about not pitching for Puerto Rico.
Its must be great to think complex thoughts. But its best to remember, the Cards are not. They are just working out, enjoying the Florida sunshine, and getting ready for a fun season ahead!!
Jumbo, since you brought up Schumaker (not Schumacker) and the outfield, I see him about sixth or seventh on the depth chart for 2009, provided good health all around.
1. Ludwick – monster 2008 gives him the pole position
2. Ankiel – nice combination of athleticsm, major league success and upside
3. Duncan – 38 homers, 900+ OPS over 162 game stretch in 2006, pre 2007 All Star break
4. Rasmus – potential five tool guy, maybe better off playing every day in Memphis
5. Mather – athletic, right-handed power stroke and versatile
6. Schumaker – versatile, lead-off type, closer to guys below than guys above IMO
7. Jay – potential .300/.400/.450 guy with good defense, a great fourth outfield candidate
8. Barton – optionable, but right-handed bat is a plus
I think TLR looked at his options over the winter and decided that Schu would have a tough time holding off the competition for a corner spot and probably saw second base as the best spot for Schu to even have a spot on the team. Schu’s friendship with Kennedy was going to cause friction and it was (IMO) best to jettison Kennedy, allowing for full competition, without Schu having to worry about AK’s situation.
Schu’s pitiful numbers against portsiders probably also played a big part. Dunc’s big game today (4 for 4, so far) is promising.
Jumbo, Kennedy’s release was the only way Tony could move Shu to second. With Kennedy there, Kennedy win the position easily in a competition. I have a feeling Tony’s suggestion to release Kennedy was challenge to BD in response to their strong suggestion that Colby be given the inside path to center. Well he did it! Now Colby chokes his way off the team and we’re stuck with a time bomb at 2nd base. Your in tight with Mo and Bd, why don’t you make a list of the lost sponsors and the amounts of lost revenue for 2009? The Gordon article, and their need to sponsor it makes me sick. Anyway Tony has his first sip of Hemlock, and there is no help on the way. Kennedy’s innocent naivety is a perfect indicator of what really happened. Spare me the Holiday analogies. Do the math. The fact that that was there first attempt at coning the public into seeing there big spending ways shows you who is running the show. Shu would have been shortstop then. They still end up at 91, as they will make 85 next year easily. They will be tempted to take more the way their bad economy ruse is working, or is the saving money for a monument to Albert still their number 1. Or are they losing Cardinal Club Members who are too frightened to use the write off this year. Maybe its the Corporate box club that got cold feet. No one wants to be audited right now maybe. The thinker isn’t in Paris.
I strongly believe reality is somewhere between Jumbo’s harmony and WC’s every move is designed to tweak someone else’s nose. I doubt either of you guys are going to change the other’s position, however.
I do agree the sugar in today’s Gordon Kool-Aid article was mixed far too strongly. Here’s the link for those who haven’t read it. I am confused how he came up with only $75 million plus Kennedy for the payroll…
Thanks Brian for moderating. There really isn’t a point for me to be venting here. I’m thankful to Jumbo for giving me the chance I guess. They might go to the 75 next year. They will have the opportunity. My only concern is that they will be undermining their pitching. That is always a sad story.
Gordon comes across to me quite often as a dunce. I read his article this morning and the first thought that crossed my mind was how the anti-management mob would jump all over that $75M remark.
I don’t suppose this blog will ever have an “Ignore” button, but I’m beginning to wish it did.
DD, think of it this way. With others expressing their points as such, it ensures you can always be considered mainstream…
Dizzy: we share admiration for Ankiel and his inspirational rebirth. (There is tedious under-appreciation for Rick among the young rascals at the Birdhouse.) If Ankiel stays healthy, he could have a monster season.
Rasmus should begin at AAA. Its a no-brainer. The purpose of AAA is add finishing touches, instead of struggling with the stick in the majors. His time will come. There has to be a relationship between AAA time and ML performance. The more time invested at AAA for Rasmus, the better he will play when he gets the call.
Duncan’s strength is the stick. If his spine is reborn, he too could have a monster season. I hope he does not reinjure himself in the field, trying to impress Uncle Tony. He needs to play within his safe operational envelope.
Experimenting with Schu at 2B seems like a no-lose test. He grows into a 2Bman, which Modene and I agree is unlikely but if anyone could do it, it would be Skip. If he can’t play 2B by April, then he falls back to reserve OF. Meanwhile the Cards give more playing time to Rasmus, encouraging his fans. But it is the more ready Jay dependent on Schu, while Barton is contingent on Mather.
The Cards did not release Adam, until they had two lefty swinging candidates at 2B, Schu and Thurston. This gave depth. Thurston did not just some career minor leaguer wandering by, but had to have been selected and wooed. This suggests the front office is thinking.
Maybe they were holding Gordon hostage Dizzy, and he dropped the 75 as a call for help? I liked Strauss yesterday saying,” why are we taking these chances”. Looper is injured. Bonds is available. I sign him in a second, just to get some of our sponsors back of course.
WC: There are lots of casts of the Thinker. The original is said at a Rodin Museum at Paris. This is where Jumbo would wish you to appreciate it, not recasts in North American museums. Jumbo only wishes the best for you.
The Colby for CF stuff has modest likelihood. It is to send a message to Colby that we value him. And to send a message to the fans that we value him. It has nothing to do with cramming Colby upon TLR to save money. The Cards know Rasmus needs more time in Memphis; they told his Dad; and his father believes.
Your grasp of the state of the US and world economy gets a D-. Circa Nov/Dec 2007, there was a post at the Birdhouse about how the economy was headed in a bad way. The poster was disputed, of course, by someone who brags of being an economist. But this poster was by no means wrong. His viewpont was [resciently way ahead of the retrenchment by DeWitt, who seems to have finally accepted an unpleasant reality of historic proportions, now that it has come to pass. Warren Buffett, sage of Omaha, says the economy is a “shambles.” Buffett is not at your pay grade, but on this issue, Jumbo must agree with the Sage, rather than yourself.
WC,
1. Why are we taking “what chances?”
2.What does Looper’s injury have to do with these conversations?
3. Can Bonds play second base?
I have read the Gordon article. In general, it is good.
We are entering a time today comparable to the 1930-32 period, when the US economy underwent a painful contraction. DeWitt has come to understand the very unpleasant situation.
WC, out in the real world, away from the Monets, Rembrandts, and Rodins, the US government is doing a large deficit spend called a stimulus. They are only doing this because we are entering tough economic conditions. I am glad you are insulated from the hardships to be endured by others. DeWitt has made the right call, to cut back spending, as much as possible.
Bonds has his hands full in court. If Barry were available to play baseball, we should not pay him much, because splurging on players will not yield more income for the Cards, given where the economy is headed.
DeWitt altered the business strategy of the team circa 2003, to improve amateur scouting and prospect development. He did not do this, because he knew a Depression was coming. It just made sense for a mid-market team. Now that bad times are unexpectedly coming, the homegrowing of talent is co-incidentally helping the Cards even more.
Dizzy. Those were Strauss’ words I think. Looper was just a piece of news that flashed. Rib cage I think? Bonds just told his agent to call all teams. He is resuming his career.
Jumbo, I didn’t get to the Rodin museum. I saw quite a number of his pieces at the D’Orsay. I would love to educate you about the economy. Lets hope BD stays below the radar when the Congressional investigations crank up. And they will. Inform yourself. There is a lot you can learn just by reading a bit. Like your search on the Rodin. Do it.
It will be great if DoJ or Congress investigate tax wheezes and off-shore shennanigans. If they catch Billy D for something iffy, all the more power to them.
Now, in relation to the economy, its smart for the Cards to hold the line on ML salaries, after shouldering Lohse and K. Greene. Keep a few gold bricks under the mattress, in reserve.
We can just toss a gold brick at Zambrano, right! Krike!! Just think Jum, if we come in 4th again, we won’t have to make Pujols a major share holder. Don’t think that variation is unstudied.
Sorry WC, but players are prohibited by MLB edict from holding any team ownership share.
We are unlikely to finish 4th in 2009. Pujols, Duncan, Ankiel, Ludwick, 3B, and Greene offer a lot of firepower. If the pitching is ok, the Cubs can get a run for their money.
Regarding conversions of outfielders to middle infield…..Davey Lopes and Bill Russell were outfielders before the Dodgers moved them to middle infield at the major league level in the early 1970s.
Lopes was about 28 years old as a rookie. He then played about 12 years, so he must not have been too old.
Just an expression Brian. If he had a contract that was differed for 15 years, it would feel like a partnership.
Jumbo, our problem isn’t talent. Its tactical flexibility. Duncan can hit till they find his holes, Ankiel and Ludwick the same. They don’t make adjustments well. They’re already pitching around Albert. Yes its possible they will improve. Did we hire a hitting coach? No. I don’t see any changes. We have a great chance of taking 4th again. And as last year, there won’t be any powder wasted. Please copy and paste this dialog for July. I was working in Hollywood during that Dodger period. Used to go watch games often. Garvey and the Penguin to boot.
We do not need new personnel, we only need need our beasts to stay healthy. This lineup could belt 200 homers, even without hormone help. Who cares if Duncan, Ludwick and Ankiel rack up Ks? They are beasts and catch up to their fair share.
Pitching around Albert is an overblown myth. He hit 37 homers last year, with his elbow hurting.
Pitching around Albert is an overblown myth? Jumbo, I often let you profess your theories as if they are fact without comment, but when one is so blatantly wrong as in this case, I simply cannot let it pass.
Fact: Pujols led MLB with 34 intentional walks in 2008. That is sixth-highest all-time for a player not named Barry Bonds and second-highest for a right-handed hitter in the history of Major League Baseball.
Fact: Pujols walked 104 times last season, second in the NL and third in MLB. An undetermined number of the remaining 70 were intentional unintentional walks.
Opinion: He could top both numbers, 34 and 104, in 2009.
Bonds hit 73 homers, without fearsome hitters behind him. A guy who walks will have a higher OPS. Thats useful.
Pujols had an effective season last year, though his elbow was painful. This year, we hope the elbow will be more playable. Ludwick is confident, Ankiel patched up. Thats more firepower than Bonds enjoyed.
TLR wanted Jason Bay or Matt Holliday to bat cleanup. TLR likes top talent and its his job to ask. But we are not going to outbid the Sox if they really want Bay, and a lot of fans doubted trading Boggs, Luddy, and Skip for Holliday. Even without Bay or Holliday, the Cards have terrific firepower. If these guys stay healthy, they will lay some serious hurt on ERAs.
It does not bother me if Pujols walks a lot. It just gets a runner on base for one of the boppers up next.
The poor UFan got massacred at the Birdhouse in 2007 for wanting “protection”, maybe Carbrea, behind Albert. A bunch of folks who claim to know “facts” told him there was no such thing as protection at all. Westcoast reminds me of the UFan.
Albert is certainly pitched around. This is “overblown”, because I dont think it matters much. Albert is still productive.
The foremost thing is Albert stay healthy. If he enjoys the blessing of good health, Pujols will get involved in run production. Ankiel, Ludwick, Mather, Greene give plenty of protection.
Sorry Jumbo. Pujols could have walked 30 more times last year if he didn’t chase. Thats the irony. With crap behind him Albert got lured into trying to handle balls outside the strike zone. That was the source of his slump in Aug last year. He got depressed that he couldn’t help the team, and it only got worse. If you recall, when he gave up, he started to just shoot the ball through the right side. He hit a lot of singles in that last month if I remember correctly. That earned him some inside pitches and a few more mistakes. He got one opportunity today with bases juiced and he ripped. He will leave to avoid this obvious trap. He will never break records other than walks in a career in ST Louis. DeWitt has already decided what he will do. Now comes the paint job. Alberts agent are already preparing no doubt. Unless the division collapses, thats the future.
WC, you really should check your facts before you start spouting off and ending up with your tired, inane predictions.
Albert hit .398/.491/.745 last year in August and followed that up with a September/October line of .321/.427/.702. He also slammed eight home runs each of those months, tied for his second and third best months of 2008.
Every player should suffer through slumps like that.
By the way, 2008 was the first time in Albert’s career that he drew 100 or more walks. Babe Ruth was walked 100 or more times 13 times and he had a guy with the third highest slugging percentage in the history of baseball batting behind him eight of those years.
Ted Williams was walked 100 or more times 11 times during his career and Bonds managed it 14 times. Getting walked is what comes with being the best hitter of your era. There is not a player on the planet that is going to cause pitchers to groove pitches to Albert Pujols.
inane predictions. Save it. I recall he was injured for a week or two. 10 days maybe. The 2 weeks before that, were hard. After the sweep by the Brewers. Check those numbers. Then get back to me.
Also the game has evolved a bit tactically from those days I would say. Williams and Bonds get to the series often? Jerry
Awesome facts, Diz. I like it when facts strongly confirm my impressions. This stuff about Pujols being rendered ineffective by lacking backup is unjustified and fearful.
WC used to or still does work in Hollywood, fiction and pop psychology capital of the Universe. He contributes psychological insights. When out-argued, he tells folks to look for facts (that he hints he knows are out there) and “get back to me.” He knows more about hitting than Hal McRae.
The agents for Albert are in Beverly Hills. WC expresses interest in what ballplayers earn and seems hostile to DeWitt. He seems disbelieving of the recession, despite 10 percent unemployment in California, perhaps his attention understandably diverted by the glories of Paris art museums.
I did not participate in the earlier “protection” discussion, but I am quite sure that Pujols’ impact would be even greater if he was given more pitches to hit and was walked less frequently. I am also quite sure that if the Cardinals were to have another top quality hitter batting behind Pujols (like Manny, for example), then Pujols would be pitched to less carefully.
Does anyone disagree with this basic premise?
I am not stating what the Cardinals could or should do, just stating what I think is reality.
Bonds had an even worse problem. Once Jeff Kent departed, the Giants had no other offensive threats to speak of at all. Like Bonds in his heyday, the best hitter in the game today, Pujols, is going to get pitched around often. That is not a myth.
We may never see Pujols’ full potential. He is approaching the age of what should statistically be the height of his career (assuming no late career “helpers” like Bonds used).
It is too bad that we do not have 13 Pujolses to serve as position players. On this, there should be wide agreement. Unfortunately Pujolses do not conveniently grow on trees, easy for the picking.
To bat Manny behind Pujols will cost $25MM. This sort of cost would make it hard to retain Pujols when he is due for a salary increase.
So yes, Pujols is going to collect walks. I agree that is not a myth.
I instead would argue that it is inevitable teams will pitch around Pujols, when they can. Nevertheless, he is still very effective.
And in Ludwick, Ankiel, Duncan, Freese/Glaus, Greene, the 2009 Cards have a great collection of hitters, many more than Bonds enjoyed, when Barry surmounted home run records, thereby illustrating that a great hitter can still collect his share and not be nullified by later batters.
There is an appealing path toward madness to think about “we may never see Pujols full potential.”
Mere mundane reality: Pujols is a fine hitter; he will be given walks; walks are helpful too so this is not cause for panic, but as Dizzy notes often happens with great hitters; the Cards have some sluggers to back Albert up; Hal McRae knows vastly more about hitting than WC; helpers have been rampant across many sports because athletes tend to be smart and will play within rules as they are enforced; trying to prohibit athletes from using beneficial molecular supplements is like trying to find needles in haystacks, so is impractically difficult; most of us inhabit an imperfect, post-lapsarian world.
WC, I don’t plan to do your research for you. I would suggest you check a site like baseball-reference.com before making outlandish statements that can be disproved in the bat of an eyelash.
Yes, Albert was injured in June. What does that have to do with your argument about protection? I note also that you asked about World Series appearances by two of the three players I mentioned as comps but failed to mention the third, a guy who appeared in ten of them, seven after he turned full-time to hitting.
Brian, I cited Ruth as an example who was “protected” by Gehrig for about nine seasons. If we were to equate Pujols with Ruth and Manny Ramirez with Gehrig, I believe Pujols would still get close to the same treatment he gets now. His “protection” has to come from the guys in front of him. If there’s no place to put him, he will see better pitches. The tactical evolution of baseball hasn’t changed to the point that the best hitter in baseball at the plate is an inviting sight to opposing managers and pitchers.
Teams that have combinations like Ruth / Gehrig are as rare as hens’ teeth. I’m not going to hold my breath waiting for the Cards to find somebody as good as Albert.
“Hal McRae knows vastly more about hitting than WC”. Hal MaRae is a relic. He is Tony’s weakest link. His personal style is ineffective, especially for players who really need it. Ankiel, Ludwick, Glaus. Pujols shows none of his influence as does Chris Duncan. This is not the 70s. I would buy him a new car, put him in it and give directions. Thats why guys like Lopez can come in here looking like Gods when they carry influences from other modern organizations. Dave does Chris. Albert does it his own way. The rest open up to soon, clear the hips like its a golf clinic, and dream of pitchers without change ups and sliders. I have never seen weaker bunters either. Thats what I see, and HEAR. Dave Duncan coaching another club would just walk Albert, and strike everyone else out. MaCrae goes out with Tony.
I’m not proud of my Hollywood days Beau. Just doing a little TV stunt work. I was a complete slut. Women continually took advantage of my “innocence”. After a terrible 10yr addiction to Eynzite, my life became almost unmanageable. I still have to have help just taking a leak. “Thats it darling, point it over thataway”.
WC: Trying to glimmer how you come about some outlooks. This can possibly help in terms of steering you toward sounder ones. Or edify me not to try. It sounds welcome if you have been able to steer in directions that you find to be better.
I cannot understand how Felipe Lopez could play badly for the Nationals, then thrive with the Cards, yet it is the Cards who are the ones who have lousy hitting instruction. That is a baffling paradox.
Ankiel has rare power for CF. He hits more effectively that CFs like Willy Taveras. Rick’s game is to clear fences. He does. So does Luddy, the beast.
Like Earl Weaver, TLR likes the long ball. Hal McRae was a nifty hitter in the majors. Hal might know a thing or two about hitting? TLR and Daddy Dunc also know a little bit about baseball. This little shrimp will have to trust their judgments.
By the way, WC, while I’m very uncertain about your punctuation in post no. 45, if you think I’m Jerry Modene, I’m sorry to disappoint you. I am honored that you would link me with him, but it is simply another wild guess on your part, much like your wacky predictions.
As for Hollywood in the ’70′s, I remember a guy that worked at Tommy’s on Hollywood Blvd. near the 101 flipping burgers that used to wax poetically about the Louvre. Was that you?
I noticed the inexplicable Jerry, too .
WC: Mr Dean is an awesome speller. DD is not Modene, though there is some similarity between them, in that they are each smart guys and formidably smart guys who know a lot about baseball. Jerry works in Vegas and may be a math wizard; he has encylopedic knowledge of Cards baseball. If Modene is on here, he is under a different handle. DD lives in southern California.
WC expresses dislike for the Cubs. This is a healthy outlook. I am trying to find a positive foundation on which to build.
I remember Jason’s, the steak house out in Toluka Lake that was a hang out. I played music there a few times too. I remember being followed by Juice Newton one night, who had some success as a country singer later in her career. Its probably gone now. Love you guys. Could you please duck. I need to turn around as I’m getting a little excited! Sorry to not recognize your nagging style Dizzy. Ankiel could still be traded at any time. Spring training isn’t for money. BD has his own agenda, and it has nothing to do Scottie B.
The Cards were rumored to offer Ankiel for Putz or the reliever with the Phillies whose name I forget, Madsen or something. Putz was in play, but landed by the Mets. Madsen decided to do what some people claim a Scott Boras client NEVER does, which is sign a bridging contract, foregoing some years of free agency. Maybe Madsen was risk averse and elected to take good money, rather than risk injury. In any event, to get a good reliever, you have to give up some real talent, hence Rick could have been talked about, even if Hal McRae has messed up his swing.
RCW seems unsure what will happen with Ankiel. He has had conversations with Boras folks, who rep Rick. This implies Rick might choose to stay with the Cards beyond 09, depending on how Rick’s season goes or the market or Rick’s preferences.
If he has a big year, Rick is going to earn a big contract, so may depart. Right now, its unclear. The Cards are rooting for Rick to have a monster campaign, because we like him and want the best for him, whatever this turns out to be.
I’m not surprised you don’t recognize my style. It’s obvious from this thread as well as the thread at the Birdhouse that you rely on a (faulty) memory for your arguments.
Thanks again for reminding us about your phobias and crystal ball reading.
THE THREAD??????? You occasionally read birdhouse huh Dizzy? The US gives you away AUSTIN. Few posters of any interest use WE and US. Sorry not to recognize you sooner. Even Oquendo isn’t that insecure. Sorry we don’t have ignore here. goodbye
Westcoast: Austin is lives near Austin Texas. He played baseball in those parts, before law and/or business school. He ain’t Dean. Dizzy lives nearer to you.
Mr. Dean 1) is not sympathetic to people bashing the Cardinals, as you often do; and 2) he is tougher in bulletin board debate than AustinCardinal.
So a word of advice….steer clear from trying to debate Dean. Its a complete and utter mismatch, you versus him.
WC, let me refer you up to post number 11 in this thread as regards the Birdhouse. I rarely post there but have not posted there or here as anybody but DizzyDean17. I have also posted at FanHome and Gateway Redbirds as DizzyDean17 and no other handle. I’ve also responded to articles in the Post-Dispatch as DizzyDean17 and no other handle.
I was referring to the thread at the Birdhouse about lefty reliever free agents where your “facts” were being found to be fallacies, but that should be of no surprise to anybody. I was interrupted midway and failed to complete a sentence. My bad.
Why am I also not surprised that you suspect some sort of conspiracy here?
Jumbo, if you’re trying out for the job as my publicity agent, I’m sorry but we’re a lean, mean machine here and that is being taken care of in house.
I am also not completely against somebody “bashing” the Cardinals if they do so with tact and can back up their opinions with fact. I am very much against the use of crystal balls that many of the so-called bashers like to use.
I trust that management has done their homework, for instance, when they sign free agents, even minor league free agents. Many people seem to assume that since Joe Beimel, Denys Reyes and others had better seasons in 2008 they are automatically better than and worth more money than the guys the Cardinals signed. Relief pitchers are prone to wild swings in ERA from year to year. I’m willing to bet that Mo received input from Dave Duncan, among others, before signing the guys he did.
Intelligent interpretation from salient facts is useful for credible viewpoints.
Anyone who assumes the Cards do not make thoughtful decisions, within the realm of practical possibilities, is going to tend to be mistaken.
“Anyone who assumes the Cards do not make thoughtful decisions, within the realm of practical possibilities, is going to tend to be mistaken.”
Or, they can call them cheap.
We had differing reactions to signing Izturis. You were presumably sickened. I felt it was the right choice, but only given the unexciting alternatives. Some faulted the Cesar signing as too expensive. Pineiro too. With the money factor better known among fans, its very hard for the Cardinals to arrive at the right price to satisfy all the fans. The Cards are too cheap, except when they are too wasteful.
I was being facetious with my “cheap” remark. While I didn’t like the signing of Izturis at the time, I grew to realize he wasn’t the worst option out there. I defended him in a lot of places during the 2008 season, especially to those who considered him average or below on defense. I remember watching him late in the 2004 season in a series the Cards played in LA and he looked like twice the shortstop Renteria was. Izzy was picking up everything in sight and hitting well. He started 2005 in the same mode, then got hurt and abruptly stopped hitting. I’m still not sure what happened.
If we’re going to go back over old differences, I never ranked Nick Stavinoha as the second best prospect in the organization and I defended the signing of Shane Robinson in the fifth round the day it occurred. I presume you no longer think the former is the Cards’ second best prospect and you have come around a bit on Robinson. I see Shane’s ceiling as a fourth (or more likely fifth) outfielder, but he could be useful.
You favored Hawksworth as number 2. And defended Robinson on grounds he was the new Kirby Puckett.
My aggravation about Robinson was allayed when I began to see the Cards were newly looking for talent at lower rounds. It used to be you could give up hope after the 5th round. The draftee list would evolve toward college seniors signed for minor league roster fill. When the 5th round is Shane and not higher ceiling, its discouraging. However, they invested in Edwards and Pham at lower rounds. This provided two higher ceiling guys, though with longer odds of reaching the majors.
With Craig, Roth, Stavinoha, Hill, maybe Henley, Luna, the Cards are doing a better job of identifying college hitters at unhigh rounds. I like seeing that. Could not stand the lousy hitting in the system. And all the retreads from other organizations.
I like pro results, not vaulting high draft picks to the tops of lists. Stavinoha can hit enough. His drawback is position suitability, a difficulty that explains the ceilings of many lads, though not much realized given our focus on offensive stats. Freese was a 5th year senior who hit well in the Midwest League in his pro debut, like Stavinoha. Freese’s advantage is better positional fit. if you can fit on a ML field and if you can hit, you can get a chance. If much of the value of a player is in his bat, its harder.
There’s not one chance in a million that Hawksworth would’ve been my second pick after the 2005 season when you had Stavi up there at number two. He pitched 14 2/3 innings that year with an ERA of 7.98 and there’s not much more of a chance that I would have suggested Robinson was the next Kirby Puckett.
My arguments tend to be more along the line of “let’s see what this kid can do” rather than project stardom, or more importantly, failure. I think I’ve been pretty consistent over the years in my disdain for crystal ball gazing.
I did not say that you had Hawksworth up there after 2005. It must have been after his year rebounding at AA, when-ever that was, 06 or 07. I declined suggesting you were wrong at that moment in time, because I too think there is often too little information available to make precise judgments. If he deserved to be in the Top 10, who am I to say he should not be 2nd, as you suggested at that moment. There is no revealed “right” answer about the future.
You suggested Robinson could be the next Puckett. Maybe this was supposed to be a joke. Seemed daft, so I recall it. Puckett went at or near the top of a draft year. Robinson was highly debated among scouts, as was Kyle Russell and probably Degerman. The Cards collect more than there share of college players who have atypical traits. They probably see them as “value investments”, less costly because of something that bothers scouts.
I completely agree about predicting failure. First, maybe playing minor league ball for a year or two is success for the player. Second, I think a bunch of guys fit into a grey area known as AAAA; they could get a chance or they could not get a chance, depending on their competition and Fate. Third, I dont like saying negative things about minor league players.
I can see why you would have disdain for forward gazing, because some people do it weakly. There is always uncertainty about the future of any player. This does not mean his future is 100 percent unpredictable, either. There is a lot of room between these extremes. An important part of the business of baseball lies therein.
I find scouting, draft tactics, and minor league develoment to be interesting, because they reward good judgment, under uncertainty. There is not one statistic that reveals all. There are understandable distortions within statistics. A lot more information has become available, via the internet, about both amateur and minor league players, than available in the past. So while crystal ball gazing is always imperfect, it need not be clueless either.
I probably did have Hawksworth as a number two or thereabouts after 2006, although you may recall I suggested that a bunch of Internet geeks voting on rankings of players was probably counter-productive, given the number of family members (and probably minor league players themselves) that visited the forum. Who wants to read that JoeCardsFan82 thinks their son or brother stinks and doesn’t deserve to be ranked among the team’s prospects. I voted on the top ten or fifteen a couple of times but went no further.
As for forward gazing, I should’ve phrased that better. It’s the guys that have the crystal-clear crystal balls that irk me; the guys that state without doubt that a guy won’t make it or will be a star. Guys were saying the Cards should cut the cord with Ankiel, that he’d never make it. I suggested we sit and watch and let Rick determine whether or not he could make it. The money was already spent.
Let me put it another way, I hope Colby Rasmus turns into Stan Musial but I understand it’s not likely. There is a tremendous amount of weight on that young man’s shoulders from reading or hearing about what message board geeks are saying about him. I understand, to a degree, what his dad is doing by downplaying him on message boards like the Birdhouse. I think he would like to see his son with a solid grounding as opposed to perhaps walking around like the second coming. Tony played pro ball and saw guys that were studs at every level of play fail as they climbed the pyramid to the majors. There are no guarantees.
I have been excited about Cardinal minor leaguers since 1957 when Von McDaniel showed up as an 18 year old in a pennant race and was one of the best pitchers in the league until he hurt his arm. Scipio Spinks looked like a future star until he broke his leg ( I think it was), Andy Rincon looked like the real deal before disappearing after his age 23 season. John Urrea was a first round draft pick that had a solid season at age 22, then was out of baseball four years later with no more success.
Getting back to Hawksworth, I am glad to see him seemingly healthy and in the big league camp. Who knows? He may have a future yet. I’m certainly pulling for him and will rip anybody that says to just dump him ’cause he sucks. If he gets caught up in a roster numbers game, that’s another story for another thread. Speaking of threads, we’ve wandered away from a discussion about lefties, unless we count the fact that I’m one.