In a recent article entitled “Is reducing the Cardinals payroll unreasonable”, I reported on partial information from Yahoo.com’s team profiles about how player payrolls were coming together across Major League Baseball for 2009. Since we don’t know opening day rosters yet, this data is not final. Yet it paints a very clear picture of the overall direction the game is heading.
My interest in the subject is to help put into context the projected decline in the St. Louis Cardinals’ payroll this coming season. I firmly believe the team’s economic posture is the single most divisive issue across the Cardinal Nation and many who are complaining seem to lack a basic understanding of the bigger picture that reflects both the state of the US economy and its resulting impact across the totality of MLB.
People don’t need to like it. In an ideal world, we all wish our favorite team would spend more money. But at least take a moment to understand and acknowledge what is happening around you.
As the information below, expertly compiled by “Oquendo11”, attests, the Cardinals are not alone in their 2009 belt-tightening.
Here are some of the key points to be gleaned from the data. The first is most important and relevant to Cardinals fans:
- Of the 13 teams that had a 2008 payroll above average ($89.6 M), including the Cardinals, only two clubs are increasing their payroll for 2009. Those 13 teams are averaging a decrease of $8.2 M. St. Louis’ projected decline is $8.6 M, almost on the average.
- Of the 17 teams that had a 2008 payroll below average ($89.6 M), 13 increased their payroll for 2009; the 17 teams averaged an increase of $4.3 M.
- Of the 15 teams increasing payroll, seven had winning records, seven had losing records, and one had a .500 record last season.
- Of the 15 teams decreasing payroll, nine had winning records and six had losing records.
- The 16 teams that had a winning record in 2008 decreased payroll an average of $1.05 M ($16.8 M total).
- The 13 teams that had a losing record in 2008 decreased payroll an average of $1.63 M ($21.2 M total).
- The one team with a .500 record in 2008 increased payroll $4 M.
- Across MLB, the overall payroll stayed about the same, with the average dropping only $1.13 M (to $88.4 M) or a total decrease of $34 M across 30 teams. (Clubs are ordered below based on size of year-to-year change from largest increase to largest decline.)
| 2009 MLB player payrolls | Min forecast | Max forecast | Avg Forecast | 08 payroll | delta | 08 wins |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 125 | 125 | 125 | 98.3 | 26.7 | 92 |
| San Francisco Giants | 89 | 114 | 101.5 | 76.6 | 24.9 | 72 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 60 | 60 | 60 | 43.7 | 16.3 | 97 |
| Chicago Cubs | 133 | 133 | 133 | 119 | 14 | 97 |
| Kansas City Royals | 70 | 70 | 70 | 58 | 12 | 75 |
| Houston Astros | 99 | 102 | 100.5 | 88.9 | 11.6 | 86 |
| Oakland Athletics | 50 | 65 | 57.5 | 48 | 9.5 | 75 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 74 | 74 | 74 | 66.2 | 7.8 | 82 |
| Washington Nationals | 50 | 75 | 62.5 | 55 | 7.5 | 59 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 72 | 75 | 73.5 | 67.1 | 6.4 | 68 |
| Colorado Rockies | 74 | 74 | 74 | 68.7 | 5.3 | 74 |
| Cleveland Indians | 83 | 83 | 83 | 79 | 4 | 81 |
| Minnesota Twins | 59 | 59 | 59 | 57 | 2 | 88 |
| Florida Marlins | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 21.8 | 1.7 | 84 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 75 | 75 | 75 | 74.1 | 0.9 | 74 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 79 | 82 | 80.5 | 80.9 | -0.4 | 90 |
| Texas Rangers | 62 | 72 | 67 | 67.7 | -0.7 | 79 |
| Detroit Tigers | 135 | 135 | 135 | 138 | -3 | 74 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 45 | 45 | 45 | 48.7 | -3.7 | 67 |
| New York Yankees | 200 | 210 | 205 | 209 | -4 | 89 |
| Boston Red Sox | 125 | 127 | 126 | 133.4 | -7.4 | 95 |
| New York Mets | 130 | 130 | 130 | 137.8 | -7.8 | 89 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 91 | 91 | 91 | 99.6 | -8.6 | 86 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 105 | 115 | 110 | 119.2 | -9.2 | 100 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 85 | 88 | 86.5 | 97.97 | -11.47 | 86 |
| Chicago White Sox | 100 | 100 | 100 | 121 | -21 | 89 |
| Seattle Mariners | 90 | 100 | 95 | 117.7 | -22.7 | 61 |
| Atlanta Braves | 70 | 85 | 77.5 | 102.4 | -24.9 | 72 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 79 | 104 | 91.5 | 118.5 | -27 | 84 |
| San Diego Padres | 40 | 42 | 41 | 73.7 | -32.7 | 63 |
| Average payroll change | -1.13 | |||||
| Total payroll change | -33.97 | |||||
| (all amounts are in $M) |
A footnote. Since projected $25 million man Manny Ramirez is not signed, he is included in the high case for both the Dodgers and Giants. Of course, he will ultimately be in one or the other, but not both.
I will be back to address this again once the season-opening payrolls across the game are set, but I don’t expect the conclusion to change dramatically.
Again only 2 teams (cubs and phillies) had a payroll above average in 08 and increased payroll in 09. The other 11 teams (including the Cardinals) with an 08 payroll above average decreased payroll an average of $13.4 M. So most of these teams decreased their 09 by more than the Cardinals did (if you want to believe the Yahoo data).
Again, nice work pulling this together, Oquie! There will be some changes before the season starts, but the trend is very clear. The ends are coming in toward the middle as the bigger budget clubs cut back and the lower-spending clubs grow their payrolls. Not a bad trend if you believe greater parity is a positive.
Brian, we both know to take these numbers with a grain of salt because of the way they are calculated. For example if Kennedy gets added to the Rays 25-man roster, I expect the Rays “payroll” will go up $4 M while the Cardinals “payroll” will go down $4 M, even though it would be the Cardinals paying $3.6 M of his salary. So I don’t like taking anyone number as meaningful, but I think trends do have some meaning. And as you said, the trend here is clear. When the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodger, Angels, Mets, and Braves are all cutting “payroll”, it shows that even big market, win now teams know this off-season is not the time to add payroll.
The Cards cutback seems one of the more significant, since driven by choice. The Blue Jays for instance lost AJ Burnett, explaining much of their cutback.
The Cards cutback seems noticable on a percentage basis. Whereas the Yankees cutback 2 percent, the Cards retrenched 8 percent.
There is forecast to be a 42 million dollar salary gap between the high rolling Cubs versus the economically prudent Cards.
Approaching $40MM will come off the books for the Cards after the 2009 season, with contracts ending for Glaus, Pineiro, Wellemeyer, Ankiel, Kennedy, Franklin, K. Greene. Its nice to gain so much financial flexibility.
Can you say Cardinal Village. If the season goes as I expect, owners will be collecting all the profits, against their projected earnings scam. You guys probably think oil will stay below 40$bb. The Saudi’s are flooding the market for a reason. It will change soon enough.
Sorry to add this. Did I miss the 3.4 million turnstile equivalents between all teams. Oh, and regardless of tickets prices, thats allot of hot dogs, jerseys and such. Sounds like a song lyric.
If the Saudis were to flood the market with oil, this would only help keep the price of this commodity low.
The US has excess housing. Few developers are going to start more condos. Now that the recession has downward momentum, Ballpark Village may not get launched for another decade.
Yes Jumbo, thats true. The truth here isn’t what you perceive as sensible or logical. The truth is a lot of privately held resource are looking for a home. After a while BD will move for tax free bonds. He will get them and the building will start. Your 85 next year is for a purpose. Move the truths around till they reveal the structure hidden beneath. The tankers are backed up ten deep and below the radar, for a reason. Just see it. It will come to you.
This thread seems to be getting off course.
Westcoast, please forgive me if i don’t understand your riddle-like posts, but I am here to discuss Cardinal baseball, not geopolitics and macroeconomics.
Sorry Dizzy. It must be this way though. Within the above statement is the future of AP, amongst other important issues. Like it or not, Cards baseball has little to do with baseball operations right now. A great deal of care is being taken to create the appearance of normality, but things aren’t on the up and up here from a competitive standpoint. I’m not going to drill on this here. The boys will take the field. We will cheer. This conversation will be forgotten, but its substance will be revealed again and again. Some here believe there will be moves. Real meaningful moves. I’m not so sure. If the team tanks, the pressure will start to build on the scapegoats. Tony/Mo. I feel for both of them. Tony is tough. Mo has my sympathy. Lets let the topic fade. In that we agree. Play ball.
Westie, your imaginings about DeWitt’s financial motives lost my confidence when you were unable to spell Cayman, as in the island banking haven. We agree you should let fevered financial imaginings “fade….Play ball.”
the org has a top 10 farm system, roughly 8.6 mil in “dry powder” and the all-star game income available.
i’m expecting a MAJOR july acquisition(s) and a post season berth.
bip, here’s hoping you’re not disappointed!
Jumbo jumbo jumbo. Would it make a difference for you to know? I agree that the time for player negotiations is over. I’m backing the boys we have. I like the young kids. They’re entertaining, even playing against grown men. If those lefties start giving it away, especially in a Carp or Waino start, there will be a lynch mob though. Get ready Billy boy.
Pat Buchanan once campaigned against Daddy Bush by saying the peasants were coming with pitch-forks. Like a modern day Paul Revere, you have now forewarned Daddy DeWitt.
[...] player budget compared to 2008. Some critics chose to ignore both the eroding economy as well as a significant trend all across MLB to cut player expenditures, as if the Cardinals were isolated and insulated from the [...]