I had decided to let the signing of Orlando Hudson pass without significant comment. That was before I saw this headline from the St. Louis Post-Dispatch article on Sunday screams “Cardinals Make Late Pass at Hudson”.
Of course, it is up to the reader to interpret what was intended, but based on the emails and message board posts, I would say that many have leapt to the conclusion that Cardinals management was either again asleep at the switch with a “too little, too late offer” or concocted another K-Rod “we made an offer, honest” thinly-designed fantasy in an ill-fated attempt to placate the mobs of angry “fans”.
Nothing could be farther from the truth.
It was widely reported that second baseman Hudson, 31, signed a one-year deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers for a base salary of just $3 million, with a $380,000 signing bonus.
At first blush, that represents a significant bargain as well as a drop from the $6.25 million he earned last year with the Arizona Diamondbacks. It is light years away from the $10 million per year, multi-year contract he was reportedly seeking during the winter.
Not so fast.
Hudson’s contract includes a lot more, incentives which max out at $4.62 million, making his total 2009 earning opportunity $8 million. For the Cardinals, already forking over $4 million to released Adam Kennedy, dropping as much as $8 million more on an over-30, often-injured second baseman seems most improbable.
Despite being a three-time Gold Glove Award winner, Hudson’s defense is said by some to be in decline. The switch-hitter batted a career-high .305 last season, but only played in 107 games due to various injuries.
But wait! There’s more.
Because Hudson is a Type A free agent, the Cardinals would have been required to surrender their first-round selection in June’s First-Year Player Draft to the D-backs.
The P-D article notes that once he realized that Hudson’s asking price had returned to Earth, Cards GM John Mozeliak inquired with Arizona as to their willingness to consider an alternative – re-sign Hudson and immediately trade him to St. Louis. In that scenario, the D-backs would have received a prospect from the Cardinals, but a lesser one than a first-rounder.
Instead, the Dodgers stepped in with the above contract to Hudson and apparently no concern over forfeiting their top draft pick, 17th overall, to Arizona. Even if the D-backs wanted to cooperate with the Cardinals, they had no control over Hudson signing elsewhere instead.
Look at it this way. Should the Cardinals have matched or tried to top the Dodgers – guaranteeing Hudson $3.4 million, giving up their 2009 version of Brett Wallace plus potentially paying an additional $4.6 million or more on top of it?
I am not a big fan of the Cardinals’ “keeping their powder dry” analogy, but until I see a lot more of Chris Carpenter in real live games, I am hoping any $3.4 million, or $8 million for that matter, would be spent on more pitching instead.
If the Skip Schumaker at second base experiment fails and the club is uncomfortable with Brendan Ryan or Joe Thurston at the position, then make a trade from the outfield surplus during or at the conclusion of spring training.
For the seemingly increasing number of angry Cardinals fans, at least take the time to consider all angles before leaping to assume the worst, despite what the headlines might suggest.
Nice read Brian. I can’t help but feel a tiny bit squeamish over the believe that the best chemistry is always achieved through draft picks and the preparation to except what they yield. (Twins) It is the most economical for a time but doesn’t always lead to success. The Twins are sure doing allot of searching out side these days even though they created Mauer and Moreau. If Skip starts to struggle at the plate because of defensive pressure, what have you? And there will be pressure. You can say what you want, but the real issue was never about talent. It was about the 91, no matter how you rationalize it. To the extent that this may be true, will be revealed soon enough. Lets hope were lucky, because tactically, we are not deserving of success with these non moves.
The Dodgers probably felt a little more comfortable in giving up the 17th pick because they gained picks number 35 and 52 due to the Braves signing of Derek Lowe.
I’m not exactly when the incentives in Hudon’s contract kick in, but he could conceivably produce less than Kennedy did in 2008 and earn his full package. it’s either based on plate appearances or games. There can be nothing about the quality of those PA’s or games in the contract.
Given that his 2008 season ended in August with a dislocated wrist, I’d be very, very concerned about how he is able to turn on 90 mph fastballs or what happens when he tries to check a swing?
I’m with you in that I am very comfortable we didn’t sign this guy. As an avowed Dodger hater living in view of the halo of lights from Dodger Stadium, I will watch him very closely this year.
It is possible that we are down to two scenarios
1) That the Cardinals are rigidly holding to their develop the farm system and promote from within philosophy and stay off the free agent market and not trade prospects for veterans
or
2) They are waiting to make moves until spring training gives some insight to the following:
Will Duncan return to pre-injury form and become an attractive trade comodity as a solid first baseman or better still a DH with 30+ home run potential.
Will Rasmus force himself into the outfield picture freeing up Ankiel or Ludwick and/or Duncan for trade.
Will Schumaker prove to be an adequate second baseman defensively and continue to hit right handers well. Did he get enough work in over the winter to improve his hitting against left-handed pitchers.
Will Joe Mather have a strong spring and become a more valuable trading chip or better still play adequately at third base and become an excellent utility player.
Will our left handed relief perform well enough that we are not forced into the market for an adequate southpaw setup man.
Will Carpenter be healthy allowing us to forgo a trade for starting pitching. Will McClellan show enough to earn the #5 spot. Along with that will Piniero pitch well enough that he becomes more attractive to someone starving for starting pitching. We can always say that he had been given the #5 spot (wonder if that is part of a strategy) but this rookie just come on so strong he beat him out so we can afford to give one of them up.
If a number of these things occur and the Cardinals still don’t make a move then we have to accept that the Cardinals are not going outside the organization for free agents or trades unless absolutely forced to do so.
One other question Brian. Are the Cardinals considering a position change for Anderson. Seems like I saw that rumor somewhere. In watching him play for Memphis last year he seemed athletic enough to play another position.
Sooner, you documented some very good questions, answers for which we may have over the next month of so. On the last one, I also recall a passing reference to someone speculating about Anderson moving. It is not a new thought, but the ideas seem to always come from people outside the organization. Anderson is in camp as a catcher and while he may be athletic enough to play elsewhere, he is of the most value to the organization behind the plate. I don’t think he has come close to showing he can’t handle the job there. On the other hand, there is an opening at second base…
I’ve never seen Anderson play but i doubt if he is as athletic as Schumaker and I’ll vote for the better athlete playing second base. Offensively, they seem to be pretty similar, although Anderson has a chance to develop more power. I agree with Brian, until he shows he can’t handle it, I’d leave him behind the plate.
Sooner, valid points. Braves just signed an outfielder so I feel like that blows my Ankiel trade scenario. I’m just watching at this point. I don’t really see Shu surviving spring training as a 2nd baseman. If you wait too long to make the wine, you’re stomping raisins. The market collapsed, no moves, do the math.
WC, I find your “stomping raisins” reference most amusing. Here’s hoping that doesn’t become the slogan for the 2009 season!
At this point, there’s still time as we have no idea who is going to stink or get injured during spring camps across MLB. I share your skepticism about Schumaker’s chances at 2B and can only hope the Cards can find a trade partner to unload an outfielder for a second baseman (or pitcher if Carp can’t answer the bell) before camp is out.
Spring trades are not that uncommon. Maybe there is another Edmonds-like deal (the first one!) out there somewhere. Here’s hoping Mo will be actively looking and is not being ordered to keep all the boss’ powder dry if some is needed to improve the club. If we can take at face value what the Cardinals leaked to the P-D, Mo was authorized to spend enough to try to get Hudson on a one-year deal.
I think it was the draft pick that broke the deal. That’s fine with me. If we can’t find a secondbaseman between St. Louis and Memphis there will be one on the market come June.
Agree, RedC. As DD17 pointed out, the Dodgers may have felt less pain in that they had other comp picks to fall back on (though not nearly as early as #17), but that is directly a result of them having offered arbitration to free agents as the Cardinals declined to do.
In 2004, Tony Womack was a spring training add, since the Red Sox had no roster room for him. The next year, Grudzielanek had to accept a $1MM deal as the best available to him at the time. It seems reasonable for Mo not to sweat about 2B right now. If all goes well, Thurston and Barden or Ryan can share the duty. Hudson is sure not worth a high salary and a high draft pick. Hudson himself was a low round draft pick, when he turned pro.
If you guys say so. Try to imagine though that there are a number of long range postures being prepared here. I’ve been involved with some of these in the past. The division does look weaker though.
Can you imagine the disappointment if Carp does pitch well, and we’re riding third place because of lack of run support. It is almost predictable. The Cards were like 4/16 when Lohse arrived last year. They reversed that in the second half of spring. If we start out slow again, what changes? Magical player discovery’s seem a silly way to go about business when the help is still just sitting there. Ohman for a start. I will be watching Greene and Freeze and ? at second. Albert won’t see a pitch before the All Star game.
There are 30 teams across baseball who have each chosen to pass over Ohman so far. He is not all that great and must have overpriced himself. Same with Beimel. Teams move on. They won’t be missed.
A platoon of Barden and Thurston will work out fine at 2B.
08 cardinals were first in the NL with a team ops+ of 111, for the season. i don’t expect a drop-off of run support.
glaus started very slowly and i don’t see freese/mather doing any worse until he returns.
izturis/k. greene is a wash from 08 with plus potential in 09 favoring greene.
kennedy/miles vs schu/ryan is a wash from 08 with potential for four more years affordably.
a healthy duncan and ankiel all season, and colby over barton (if it shakes out that way) could be better run support in 09.
half-full
Yeah, I agree totally to pass on O-Dawg, I like his flair and the way he plays but the repetitive injuries are a big stop sign on the road to the playoffs. Plus giving up a first round pick is not the greatest idea in order to sign an injury prone, declining fielder.
You are right Brian–if there is any money to spend save it for pitching.