Note: This post has been superseded by more current information as of November 28: link to updated Cardinals Rule 5 list.
In part one of this article, we looked at recent St. Louis Cardinals history with respect to the Rule 5 draft and began to consider the increased problem that will be facing the organization this coming winter.
As part one concluded, I disclosed the current number of Cardinals farmhands that would become Rule 5 eligible this December is 59. That is just two short of the total number of players they exposed over the prior three Rule 5 drafts combined.
Here they are, broken out into several groups. First, we will start with the 14 players that rank among my top 40 prospects in the Cardinals system. These would seem to represent the most likely candidates for protection as of now.
The columns include the player’s date of birth (DOB), the year the player was drafted and the round, the year and age at which the player first signed, my top 40 ranking and the working roster assignment for the player heading into spring training.
| Player | Position | DOB | Draft yr/rd | Signed | Age | Rank | Team |
| Colby Rasmus | OF | 08/11/1986 | 2005 1 | 2005 | 18 | 1 | Memphis |
| Bryan Anderson | C | 12/16/1986 | 2005 4 | 2005 | 18 | 3 | Memphis |
| David Freese | 3B | 04/28/1983 | 2006 9 SD | 2006 | 23 | 5 | Memphis |
| Daryl Jones | OF | 06/25/1987 | 2005 3 | 2005 | 17 | 6 | Springfield |
| Jon Jay | OF | 03/15/1985 | 2006 2 | 2006 | 21 | 12 | Memphis |
| Adam Ottavino | RHS | 11/22/1985 | 2006 1 | 2006 | 20 | 15 | Springfield |
| P.J. Walters | RHS | 03/12/1985 | 2006 11 | 2006 | 21 | 17 | Memphis |
| Allen Craig | 3B | 07/18/1984 | 2006 8 | 2006 | 21 | 18 | Springfield |
| Francisco Samuel | RHR | 12/20/1986 | 2006 | 19 | 21 | Palm Beach | |
| Tyler Herron | RHS | 08/05/1986 | 2005 1a | 2005 | 18 | 25 | Palm Beach |
| Shane Robinson | OF | 10/30/1984 | 2006 5 | 2006 | 21 | 27 | Memphis |
| Shaun Garceau | RHS | 08/28/1987 | 2005 20 | 2005 | 17 | 29 | Palm Beach |
| Luke Gregerson | RHR | 05/14/1984 | 2006 28 | 2006 | 22 | 30 | Springfield |
| Jose Martinez | 2B | 01/24/1986 | 2004 | 18 | 37 | Springfield |
Next are the 13 first-time eligibles from the 2006 draft that are not ranked among my top 40 prospects. There are certainly some prominent names in this list that could move up if they can put together solid 2009 seasons.
Remember that the organization’s 2008 Minor League Player of the Year Daryl Jones (pictured) was absent from top prospect lists just one year ago. Now I have him ranked number six and I am not alone!
| Player | Position | DOB | Draft yr/rd | Signed | Age | Team |
| Brad Furnish | LHS | 01/19/1985 | 2006 2 | 2006 | 21 | Springfield |
| Mark Hamilton | 1B | 07/29/1984 | 2006 2a | 2006 | 21 | Springfield |
| Gary Daley Jr. | RHR | 11/01/1985 | 2006 3 | 2006 | 20 | Quad Cities |
| Eddie Degerman | RHR | 09/14/1983 | 2006 4 | 2006 | 22 | Palm Beach |
| Tyler Norrick | LHS | 09/27/1983 | 2006 6 | 2006 | 22 | Palm Beach |
| Luke Gorsett | OF | 05/28/1985 | 2006 7 | 2006 | 21 | Palm Beach |
| David Carpenter | RHR | 07/15/1985 | 2006 12 | 2006 | 20 | Johnson City |
| Amaury Marti | OF | 09/02/1978* | 2006 18 | 2006 | 27* | Memphis |
| Brandon Buckman | 1B | 02/14/1984 | 2006 19 | 2006 | 22 | Springfield |
| Mark Shorey | OF | 08/13/1984 | 2006 31 | 2006 | 21 | Springfield |
| Isa Garcia | 2B | 08/20/1984 | 2006 34 | 2006 | 21 | Springfield |
| Jim Rapoport | OF | 06/25/1985 | 2006 35 | 2006 | 20 | Springfield |
| Kyle Mura | RHS | 11/24/1984 | 2006 42 | 2006 | 21 | Springfield |
| * add four years? |
There are another nine players from earlier Cardinals drafts, almost all of whom have been previously exposed to the Rule 5 draft. One exception is Mike Parisi, removed from the 40-man roster after the season and potentially lined up for his first Rule 5. Instead, it is possible that he will be re-added to the roster following his recovery from Tommy John elbow ligament replacement surgery, but if he does, it will be at the expense of one of these other players. Another first-timer is oft-injured hurler Tyler Leach, part of the teenaged signing group from 2005.
| Player | Position | DOB | Draft yr/rd | Signed | Age | Team |
| Mark McCormick | RHS | 10/15/1983 | 2005 1a | 2005 | 21 | Springfield |
| Trey Hearne | RHS | 08/19/1983 | 2005 28 | 2005 | 21 | Springfield |
| Casey Rowlett | OF | 02/08/1983 | 2005 32 | 2005 | 22 | Springfield |
| Kenny Maiques | RHR | 06/25/1985 | 2005 37 | 2005 | 20 | Palm Beach |
| Tyler Leach | RHS | 09/08/1986 | 2005 39 | 2005 | 18 | Johnson City |
| Mike Parisi | RHS | 04/18/1983 | 2004 9 | 2004 | 21 | Memphis |
| Mike Sillman | RHR | 12/03/1981 | 2004 21 | 2004 | 22 | Memphis |
| Brandon Yarbrough | C | 11/09/1984 | 2003 5 | 2003 | 18 | Memphis |
| Matt Pagnozzi | C | 11/10/1982 | 2003 8 | 2003 | 20 | Memphis |
The final group of 23 includes those signed as free agents, whether as minor league veterans such as Ian Ostlund, non-drafted free agents like Brandon Dickson, a minor league Rule 5 pick up (Russ Haltiwanger) as well as those that were originally signed to play in the Latin American academies. This group includes such standouts as Donovan Solano, Domnit Bolivar and Elvis Hernandez. A number of these players also have a chance to step up during 2009.
| Player | Position | DOB | Signed | Age | Team |
| Russ Haltiwanger | RHR | 04/21/1984 | 2005 | 21 | Memphis |
| Jon Mikrut | RHR | 11/22/1982 | 2005 | 22 | Memphis |
| Joe Rogers | LHS | 07/19/1981 | 2001 | 19 | Memphis |
| Justin Knoedler | C | 07/17/1980 | 2001 | 20 | Memphis |
| Joe Thurston | 2B | 09/29/1979 | 1999 | 19 | Memphis |
| Ian Ostlund | LHR | 10/17/1978 | 2001 | 22 | Memphis |
| Donovan Solano | SS | 12/17/1987 | 2005 | 17 | Springfield |
| Brandon Dickson | RHS | 11/03/1984 | 2006 | 21 | Springfield |
| Marco Gonzalez | RHR | 05/28/1984 | 2006 | 22 | Springfield |
| Jose Mateo | RHR | 08/31/1986 | 2005 | 18 | Palm Beach |
| Elvis Hernandez | RHS | 04/27/1985 | 2005 | 19 | Palm Beach |
| Domnit Bolivar | SS | 05/12/1989 | 2005 | 16 | Quad Cities |
| Edwin Gomez | OF | 03/10/1988 | 2005 | 16 | Batavia |
| Jairo Martinez | OF | 05/27/1987 | 2005 | 17 | Batavia |
| Jaime Landin | 2B | 04/19/1983 | 2005 | 22 | Batavia |
| Carlos Gonzalez | RHR | 08/31/1988 | 2005 | 16 | Johnson City |
| Andres Rosales | RHS | 06/13/1988 | 2004 | 16 | Johnson City |
| Ivan Castro | C | 11/17/1987 | 2005 | 17 | Johnson City |
| Senger Peralta | LHS | 08/14/1987 | 2004 | 17 | Johnson City |
| Jose Rada | RHS | 04/13/1988 | 2005 | 17 | GCL |
| Omar Javier | RHS | 10/04/1987 | 2005 | 17 | GCL |
| Julio Castellanos | LHR | 06/11/1987 | 2005 | 17 | GCL |
| Carlos Noguera | RHS | 04/21/1989 | 2005 | 16 | VSL |
Puts and takes
Obviously, not all 59 of these players will require protection. Some will also get added to the 40-man sooner than this coming fall. Third baseman David Freese is a good example. Yet all that will do was “use up” a roster spot a few months early. It doesn’t change the bottom line problem.
Simply put, there just isn’t going to be enough room on the 40-man roster for all these players. The Cardinals have averaged only four fall additions in recent years. It would be difficult to expand that exponentially, even if there were to be an extraordinarily large number of exits from St. Louis at the conclusion of the 2009 season.
Looking at the current roster of 35, I count nine potential free agents following this coming season. A number of these players have prominent roles, including four starters from the infield and outfield (Adam Kennedy, Khalil Greene, Troy Glaus and Rick Ankiel) along with two members of the rotation (Todd Wellemeyer and Joel Pineiro). Assuming that none would be kept for 2010 or at least replaced by another veteran would be unreasonable, but it is surely the outside, or most extreme case.
There are at least three players on the 40-man today who have yet to contribute at the major league level that might painlessly be removed between now and then, Blake Hawksworth, Jarrett Hoffpauir and Nick Stavinoha. Even so, that would still leave 23 players on the 40-man roster (35 minus nine minus three).
In other words, under this set of assumptions, at most only 17 (40 minus 23) of the 59 potential Rule 5’ers could be protected by late fall.
One might argue there are other younger players currently on the roster that could also be jettisoned, such as Brendan Ryan and Brad Thompson. I truly feel that the assumption of the club letting all nine veteran free agents leave without replacing any of them from the outside is unbelievable enough already.
Fantasy trades are often just that
Another popular option among fans to provide relief is trading minor leaguers, something the Cardinals have avoided like the plague since the disastrous Mark Mulder for Dan Haren, Daric Barton and Kiko Calero robbery over four years ago. Still, packaging up a group of prospects for one proven major leaguer would seem ideal given this impending problem.
If only it were so easy. Finding one such trade partner for a deal that would seem fair is difficult enough, let alone the inherent challenge in engineering the multiple trades that would probably be needed to put a real dent in the problem. Obviously, any one-for-one swaps of prospects for veterans (unless they are rental players in their walk year) would do nothing to relieve the roster jam.
Doubt me? If we are to take the Cardinals front office comments at face value, they couldn’t even land a reliever to help the struggling 2008 club down the stretch without having to give up “too much” prospect value in return. Well, the time may be coming to seriously rethink that stance.
On the other hand, if the spin is valid and the Cardinals truly have only a very few prospects that are coveted by other organizations, then those who suggest the improving minor league system has been overhyped may be proven correct.
Making it worse
While the number 17 is unrealistically high, it could be eroded from another source. We must also consider that some fast-rising players not yet close to being Rule 5 eligible may break out early, effectively using up one or more of the potential 17 “spare” roster spots “prematurely”.
Brett Wallace, Jess Todd and Clayton Mortensen are among those potentially in this situation. Knowing the roster logjam that will be occurring this fall, the Cardinals may very well decide instead to keep one, two or all three of these players (and others in a comparable status) in the minors for the entire 2009 season, including not calling them up in September.
This would be entirely disconnected from what the three might do on the field in 2009 and regardless of whether or not they could actually help in St. Louis. It would be done only so that the players don’t use up precious roster spots too soon.
Before you scoff at the idea, consider Freese, our Scout.com Cardinals Minor League Player of the Year in 2008. Why do you think he did not receive a most-deserved September promotion to St. Louis? To keep him off the 40-man roster, of course. Instead, journeyman Josh Phelps got the coveted call instead.
How does that short-sighted decision look now that Troy Glaus is out for the first few months of the 2009 season? Wouldn’t it have been better for the 2009 Cardinals for Freese to have had a month of familiarity in the big leagues instead of taking it from a fire-hose as the interim starter at third base this spring? How is Phelps helping St. Louis now that he is with San Francisco?
Same with catcher Bryan Anderson and former major leaguer Mark Johnson. Tell me which player in St. Louis in September would have more greatly benefited the team’s future. It is no contest. (Hint: Like Phelps, Johnson is already gone from the organization.)
Point being that roster issues sometimes inhibit sound baseball decisions. If I was Wallace, I wouldn’t be picking out a new house in the St. Louis suburbs just yet.
One other related point. As you evaluate the “aggressive” moves made (or not made) within the Cardinals system during the 2009 season, keep this list of 59 players in mind. As I said in part one, I believe the organization is going to do everything possible during this upcoming season to sort out the keepers from this group, as they should. For many, time may be running out.
Can’t stash them all
Once the Rule 5 date approaches, there is a further consideration for those players that cannot be kept on the 40-man. The organization can place no more than 38 non-40-man players on the Memphis roster submitted for the Rule 5 draft. These players, eligible to be selected in the Major League phase of the draft, would require the claiming club to keep them at the MLB level for the entire 2010 season if taken.
On the other hand, players rostered at Double-A Springfield and below for Rule 5 purposes are not required to be kept at the major league level by the claiming organization if selected. In other words, if any decent prospects at that level or below are exposed, chances are good they will be lost. The price is just $12,000 or $4,000 depending on the level.
Cody Haerther is a recent example, left on the Double-A roster for the December Rule 5. Since the claiming Toronto Blue Jays can keep Haerther off their 40-man roster and in the minors, they have absolutely no reason to consider returning the outfielder to St. Louis in the spring.
Dual challenges
I bring this up to suggest that the Cardinals may have two sets of decisions coming this fall. The first, and most important revolves around which players to add to the 40-man roster to secure full player protection. The second, selecting those to put on the Memphis “reserve” roster for Rule 5, could also become a bit of challenge.
As a point of reference, in the December 2008 Rule 5 Draft, the New York Yankees were the big losers. Six of their farmhands were selected by other organizations, including four off their Triple-A roster, lost in the Major League phase.
Still, for a Rule 5 player to be claimed by another team in the Major League phase, that organization must have 40-man roster space to put him. There is a legitimate reason to wonder if many other clubs may also have troubles with having more qualified players than room on their rosters.
This might keep the projected Cardinals Rule 5 losses next December down a bit, but there are a lot of gyrations required between now and then. It is a bit of a two-edged sword, as the more of these 59 at-risk players that excel during the 2009 season, the more difficult the organization’s decisions will become.
At what point does something that is generally considered to be a “good problem”, minor league depth, become a “real” problem? I think we will soon find out.
very good read…been waiting since yesterday for it….i’d love to see the way YOU hypothesize it working out…i know it is a ways off, but i’d still like to see it
Thanks, jager. To really do it right, I have to go through position by position. I have a first approach in the context of which prospects I am projecting will make their MLB debuts in 2009 (as well as a companion piece that looks backward). They are just about ready to go. I will have to follow them up with another piece that ties all the potential roster moves together.
If I was Wallace, I wouldn’t be picking out a new house in the St. Louis suburbs just yet.
I’m not sure I understand this comment. Wallace is crucially important to the future. If we can’t shed Glaus’s salary we can’t extend Pujols early without a whole lot of other rigmarole. If he doesn’t qualify for a call-up this September, I can see Mo doing a one-year deal for Glaus but no more.
I suppose Freese could be traded, but you’ve got .840 points of OPS or something to replace at third. You need to get back an awful lot for that. I discount Freese being a long-termer at the corner. I see him as more of a stopgap, possibly even a deadline trade to a lower-rung team for a pitching prospect.
RC, my point on Wallace is directly related to the roster dilemma for 2009, not his overall long-term potential as the #2 prospect in the system. The whole article points out why the Cardinals may want to use the 40-man roster spots to protect other players and wait a year on Wallace.
On the other hand, I acknowledged Wallace’s unique potential to break through this glass ceiling in 2009. Still, if I had to place a bet today, if Glaus proves to be ok and Freese is serviceable, I believe I have presented some very good reasons why we might not see Wallace in St. Louis until 2010.
(Frankly, if I was making the calls and didn’t have to worry about rosters, two immensely unrealistic “ifs”, I would play Wallace at third in Memphis the entire season, giving him a chance to firm up his defense and call him up in September as I wished they had done with Freese last year. But again, I don’t see this decision being made in a vacuum.)
Hey, maybe since the real estate market is so depressed right now, Wallace might still buy a place in St. Louis as an investment and just sublease it out for a year or so. Market prices might be improved in 2010, making it a better deal to buy now. At least I hope the economy improves!
that’s cool…i will wait with anticipation!!! i couldn’t wait to hypothesize though, i did a rough try right after i posted that comment, i and here is what i got, i went ahead and assumed everyone in the top 40 would be put on the 40man (even though i think a few wouldnt be able to stay on 25man’s all year)…i’m sure hwat i have is gonna be wrong, and i does not take into account the lower level guys that would need to be protected on the reserve-roster… (sorry this will be so long..i just wasnt sure about the formatting if i went left to right)
2010
25-40man:
1-Pujols
2-FA-2bman****
3-Freese
ss-K.Greene (re-signed)****
c-Yadi
of-Ludwick
of-Rasmus
of-Ankiel (re-signed)****
c-FA-catcher****
ci/mi-T. Greene (possibly 2b spot)
mi-B. Ryan (possibly 2b spot)
of-ci-Mather
of-Duncan
sp1-Carpenter
sp2-Wainwright
sp3-Lohse
sp4-FA-SP****
sp5-Boggs
cl-Perez
su-Franklin
lhp-Garcia (could possibly fill SP role)
lhp-FA-LHP****
p-Kinney
p-Motte
p-McC (could possibly fill SP role)
others: (15)
Barton,Barden OR Hoffpauir,Hawk,J.Martinez,Craig,Jones,Jay,Robinson,Anderson,Ottavino,PJ,Garceau,Herron,Samuel,Gregerson
this would require us to trade/waive: Skip,Thompson,Scherer,Hoff or Barden
not re-sign:Glaus,Piniero,Miller,Ring,Kennedy,Wellemeyer,LaRue
whadda ya think? I am not so sure Samuel,Gregerson,Herron,Robinson,Martinez, would stay on anyone’s 25man a full year, and perhaps I am still too high on T.Greene and Hawksworth…but i think there is wiggle room in there. McClellan and Garcia could both possibly serve as the 5th starter if need be and Anderson could be the backup catcher too.
sorry for how long this is…i was just thinking out the moves while typing and figured i would share it and not delete it
Well, I agree with you there. I think he’s probably farther behind than people think, notwithstanding his MLB-ready bat. The dilemma with him is he needs more experience at third, but the more time he spends in the minors, the less time you’re getting value out of him.
I think the organization as a whole needs to get used to an “up or out” approach. This is going to be Brendan Ryan’s last year, I think. And were it not for his surgery, probably Parisi as well. They should be trading guys like Stavinhoa for any other type of player, as Nick the Stick is never going to have a role in St. Louis.
RedC, you are right about that. They have pretty much mastered the “up” part of the approach. I think in 2009, we are going to have to see a more aggressive “out” part of the equation, though. For example, we discuss a lot the logjam for outfield at-bats in St. Louis. It is just as bad or worse in Memphis.
jager, I can’t really comment on your roster without more study. It is fun stuff to speculate about, isn’t it?
definitely is Brian..and even after I submitted the comment i had thoughts about how this would all change if Jess Todd, Wallace, Mortenson, or any other kid not “needed” to be put on the 40 man has a great year and forces themselves into the picture!
Yep, that is what makes this so complicated. There are an awful lot of variables to consider. One thing I am confident about. Those who wave this issue off as just a “good problem to have” and “nothing to be concerned about” haven’t looked at the situation in depth.
what i found interesting about my model was that we could have a very similar offseason as this year.
Potentially we would be re-signing guys we already have which isnt flashy (Ankiel,KGreene), depending on some kids for spots that others will undoubtedly think we need to invest 5yr contracts to (Boggs or other kids for a SP spot), and trade a few guys we haev been used to seeing (Skip and Thomp), add in some less than flashy arbitration decisions and hearings which will undoubtedly cause arguments in the fanbase along with a prospect debate (Wallace) and you have for a very similar offseason…let’s just hope it comes after a playoff run!
the main needs woudl be:
-a starting 2bman (which could be filled by Ryan or TGreene)
-a possible FASP (but i think we have a lot of inhouse options if we want to go that way)
-backup catcher again (one more year of LaRue?…maybe Anderson could be ready)
-2 LHRP’s (maybe one depending on what we do with Garcia if healthy…i kind of like him as a LHRP swingman)
agreed Brian…i really will be interested to see your thoughts on the moves in the minors that will tell so much about this situation…a good read i am sure it will be!
Thejager–
I could see a play for Uggla next offseason. Actually, if Mo can get the pitching situation sorted and out and extend Albert, they should have plenty of salary room next year for an impact player. Then again, we all said that this year, too.
maybe one of the player to be named from the Greene trade will be from this list.
If the giants don’t keep pedermo, he will be back on the list
What about trading quantity for quality, would any team be willing to move say a projected #2 starter for 5 or 6 average prospects?
Yep Shane, the San Diego PTBNL leaving and Perdomo potentially returning could easily cancel each other out. Certainly if the Cards were thinking ahead, which I imagine they were, their PTBNL offers came from this group of 59.
Can’t say about the trade, but if I was looking for candidates to talk with, I would start out at the bottom of the farm system rankings hoping one or preferably more of them are trying to restock their ranks quickly. Of course, they’d also have to be interested in what I was selling…
With all the RH arms the Cards already have, if I was going after pitching, I would be targeting lefties, which further limits my options. Like I said, I don’t think the Cards have an easy way out. This is going to require a batch of that “creativity” we have heard so much about!
I agree, and thanks for the info.
If the cards are in contention this summer it might be worth getting a rental player, even at the price of several prospects. (it would be better to overpay in a trade than it would to lose them in a rule 5 draft) Hopefully there will be some teams out there looking long term and ready to dump some salary.
The 40 man roster situation is becoming more competitive. There are starting to be some Latin candidates. Second, the Cards used to prefer to winnow out more guys at lower rungs on the ladder, whereas now the team is trying to advance as many of its own draftees as possible. Third, the last barganing agreement relieved some pressure on the 40 man in 2008, but this advantage, shared by all teams, ends by 2009.
32 seem longshots for the 40 man in Nov 09: Daley, Degerman, Gorsett, Marti, Buckman, Shorey, Garcia, Rapoport, Mirkut, Haltisweger, Hearne, Rowett, Leach, Parisi, Sillman, Pagnozzi, Yarbrough, Rogers, Knoedler, Dickson, M. Gonzalez, Mateo, Gomez, Jairo Martinez, Landin, Gonzalez, Castro, Peralta, Rada, Javier, Castellanos, Noguera.
5 more: Carpenter, Furnish, Norrick, Mura, McCormick seem almost as longshot.
Strong candidates to be added unless sidetracked by injuries: Rasmus, Anderson, Freese, Jones, Jay, Ottavino, Walters, Samuel, Herron, and Robinson–10.
10 middle probability candidates: Craig, Garceau, Gregerson, Martinez, Hamilton, Maiques, Solano, Bolivar, Elvis Hernandez.
AAAA vets Thurston and Ostlund, we will see how they do this year.
The Cards have more depth. We will focus on protecting the most valuable. For years, the Cards have lost few people to the Rule 5 draft. For instance, if they had wanted to retain Perdomo, they would have done so. Maybe they Birds will start losing one or two a year to Rule 5. So long as we focus on our best talent, this should not be regretted. Its good for the young men selected by other teams.
Just for clarification on Maiques’ rule 5 status. He was drafted in 2005, but due to his injury before the draft the Cardinals signed him to a 2006 contract. This coming year will be his first year of eligibility for the rule 5 draft. Hopefully he has a bounce back year and gets back on track.
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