Note: This post has been superseded by more current information as of November 28: link to updated Cardinals Rule 5 list.
I am amused when I read about writers praising the St. Louis Cardinals for their aggressive minor league promotions, as if the organization has discovered some new brand of baseball wisdom.
Here’s the reality. They are doing it because they have to.
They need to move their players up through the system more quickly in order to determine which ones are keepers before they start to risk losing them at what could soon be an unprecedented rate for the franchise.
Do I have your attention yet?
There is potential trouble on the horizon, which may first manifest itself in the 2009 Rule 5 Draft this coming December, of all places.
The Rule 5 Draft, which occurs each year at the Winter Meetings, is of only mild interest at best to the average fan. After all, it is sort of a baseball version of a flea market. There could be good merchandise available, but it may take some shopping to find what you want and more likely than not, you may come home empty-handed.
For players that may feel buried in their current organization, Rule 5 can offer the chance for a fresh, new beginning. For clubs, the draft represents an opportunity to mine a diamond in the rough at pennies on the player-development dollar.
Not everyone is in love with Rule 5, however. Those clubs blessed with more top talent than they can protect view the event with some trepidation. After all, for every organization that gains a player via the process, another club takes a loss, saying goodbye to a player in whom they’ve likely invested a lot of time and money in development.
The qualification
Players that have been professionals for four or five years must be added to their club’s 40-man roster or be exposed for possible selection by one the 29 other clubs in the Rule 5 draft.
Organizations have five years of exclusive control of players that signed their first professional contract at 18 years old or younger, but it drops to four years for those that signed at 19 or older. The relevant date for this calculation is when the first contract is signed, not when the player initially takes the field.
The current example – 2005
This line is currently drawn at the 2005 draft, one of the Cardinals’ best in recent years. This is both a blessing and a curse, as will be further explained later.
Five players from the class of 2005 would already have been Rule 5 eligible in December 2008. This is due to their being at least 19 years old when having first signed and having passed four years as a pro.
The group was led by first-rounder, shortstop Tyler Greene and supplemental first-rounder, pitcher Mark McCormick. Trey Hearne, Kenny Maiques and Casey Rowlett were the other players originally drafted in 2005 eligible to have been selected. Greene was added to the 40-man prior to the draft and the other four were not taken.
Other members of the 2005 draft class were excluded from this most recent Rule 5 draft for the final time. That group of high-flying teenage draftees was headlined by top prospects Colby Rasmus, Bryan Anderson, Tyler Herron and Daryl Jones, all selected in the first four rounds that year. Other later-round 2005 drafted exclusions include Shaun Garceau and Tyler Leach, signed at the age of 18 or younger.
Unless protected, all of the 2005-drafted players will be eligible to be taken in the December 2009 Rule 5 Draft – with the exception of one individual. (Don’t you hate all the exceptions?)
Pitcher Blake King was selected as an 18-year-old in 2005 and was a draft-and-follow player. Under a since-abolished rule, clubs could control the rights to certain players up until the next draft. King did not sign his first contract until May 2006, after he turned 19. That gave the organization his services for four years, or through the 2010 season.
Coming up – 2006
If you thought 2005 was bad, wait until you see the college-heavy draft of 2006. Without action, 20 members of that class still in the organization will become Rule 5 eligible this coming fall. Only nine younger players from that draft can remain under Cardinals control for an additional year.
The 20 at-risk include some very prominent names such as Adam Ottavino, Jon Jay (pictured) and P.J. Walters. Does that help you understand why Jay was invited to major league spring training when others were not?
Free agents, too
It isn’t just drafted players that figure into the Rule 5 mix. Free agent signings, including players from the Latin American academies, also come into play.
Jose Martinez, Francisco Samuel and Domnit Bolivar will be among those potentially exposed for the first time this coming winter.
The history
In recent years, the Cardinals have been relatively quiet in terms of Rule 5 activity. Yet this past December, they actually had a player taken in the major league phase of the Rule 5 Draft, their first since Tyler Johnson in 2004.
Reliever Luis Perdomo, who came over to St. Louis last summer in return for Anthony Reyes, was selected by the San Francisco Giants. Perdomo may still end up back with the Cardinals if he is unable to stay on the Giants’ 25-man active roster for the entire 2009 season.
The previous year, the Cards selected Brian Barton from the Cleveland Indians, but did not have any players taken. The outfielder remained with the Cardinals during all of 2008 so is now St. Louis property.
In the major league phase of the 2006 draft, the Cardinals were neither buyers nor sellers. The previous year, they selected, then returned Cubs pitcher Juan Mateo. Johnson was the only Cards major league Rule 5 transaction in 2004.
The population
If the recent past is any indication, things will get interesting as the December 2009 draft nears.
In November 2008, the Cardinals added two players, reliever Matt Scherer and shortstop Greene, to their 40-man roster for Rule 5 protection. The two years prior, they added six and five players, respectively.
Those remaining behind became Rule 5 draft eligible. In 2008, that totaled 16 players, after 18 the year prior and 27 in 2006. However, one must remember that minor leaguers signed as free agents each fall prior to the Rule 5 draft are also unprotected.
Taking that into account, the number of true prospects that were eligible to have been taken in the last three drafts were 13, 16 and 20.
| 40-man adds | R5 avail | R5 avail prospects | lost | |
| 2008 | 2 | 16 | 13 | 2 |
| 2007 | 6 | 18 | 16 | 0 |
| 2006 | 5 | 27 | 20 | 0 |
| Total | 13 | 61 | 49 | 2 |
Of them, only Perdomo and Cody Haerther left via the Rule 5 draft. In the case of the latter, the Cardinals seemed to purposely leave him at the Double-A level, making it easier for another organization to select and keep the outfielder.
St. Louis Cardinals recent Rule 5 Draft and related results
| MLB taken | Return | MLB lost | Return | MiLB taken | MiLB lost | 40 man adds | |
| 2008 | none | Luis Perdomo (SF) | TBD | Russ Haltiwanger (KC) | Cody Haerther (Tor) | Matt Scherer | |
| Tyler Greene | |||||||
| 2007 | Brian Barton (Cle) | no | none | none | none | Kyle McClellan | |
| Jason Motte | |||||||
| Joe Mather | |||||||
| Mike Parisi | |||||||
| Jarrett Hoffpauir | |||||||
| Mark Worrell | |||||||
| 2006 | none | none | Omar Falcon (Pit) | none | Troy Cate | ||
| Jose Contreras (Was) | Dennis Dove | ||||||
| Blake Hawksworth | |||||||
| Cody Haerther | |||||||
| Andy Cavazos | |||||||
| 2005 | Juan Mateo (ChC) | yes | none | Iker Franco (Atl) | Tim Hummel (CWS) | ||
| Vince Harrison (Bos) | |||||||
| 2004 | none | Tyler Johnson (Oak) | yes | Matt Demarco (Fla) | Tony Granadillo (Bos) | ||
| Jose Garcia (Tex) | Josh Teekel (Fla) | ||||||
| Justin Knoff (Cin) | |||||||
| 2003 | Hector Luna (Cle) | no | none | Rayner Laya (Mon) | Jesse Roman (SD) | ||
| Jackson Paz (Min) | |||||||
| 2002 | none | Blake Williams (Cin) | yes |
The future
With rosters as of today, the number of Cardinals farmhands that would be Rule 5 eligible this December is an amazing number – 59. This is very close to the total number of Cards players that were eligible in the last three Rule 5 drafts combined!
In the second part of this article, we will look into how they are distributed and consider what the Cardinals might be doing over the next ten months to protect as many as possible.
Brian, you wote
“Organizations have five years of exclusive control of players that signed their first professional contract at 18 years old or younger, but it drops to four years for those that signed at 19 or older. The relevant date for this calculation is when the first contract is signed, not when the player initially takes the field. ”
I want to make sure I understand this completely. Is the cutoff the player’s 18th birthday or is it his 19th birthday? In other words, if he was eighteen years and 364 days old when he signed, what category is he in?
If the player is 18 years, 364 days old, he is still 18.
For example, Colby Rasmus was born on August 11, 1986. He signed with the Cardinals on June 10, 2005, two months short of his 19th birthday. That is why he was not eligible for the Rule 5 Draft in December, 2008. However, had Rasmus not signed until August 11, 2005 or later (when he became 19), he would have had to have been protected from Rule 5 as was Tyler Greene, taken two picks after him in the June 2005 First-Year Player Draft and signed at the age of 21.
Hope that clarifies.
As always Brian, thanks for the work.
I think that this post reinforces the need for the Cardinals to trade away some of their outfield depth in order to either bring in top of the rotation prospects (AA level or so) or to bring in somebody ready to play in the middle infield in the majors. The Cardinals cannot just sit on these guys forever. At some point, the idea of a farm system is to benefit the major league team. While I think we all agree that Rasmus and Wallace are slated for the show, just about everybody else should be available.
Chris, you hit the nail on the head. The Cardinals have been reluctant to trade prospects because they want and need for some of them to come through. They have also not wanted to trade guys at what they perceive to be below value.
However, they will soon reach the point where the sheer volume of players coming up will make it be too late to act on all of them. For example, if I was them, I would be trying like crazy to trade outfield prospects (like Robinson, Marti and even Jay and maybe Jones) for second basemen and left-handed pitchers. Other prime trade candidates are Bryan Anderson (still) and Allen Craig, not to mention the glut of right-handed starting pitching prospects that project as middle-to-back of the rotation types.
Even without asking, I bet the Cards would say that they can’t find takers, which if taken at face value says we may be over-valuing some of these prospects. The December 2009 Rule 5 Draft could provide the ultimate answer to the over-valuation question. (Whenever this question comes up, writers reference an anonymous scout or two who talks down the Cardinals system. Personally, I do tend to believe there is more good quantity than top quality in the organization. But the number eight ranking for the system is still nothing to be ashamed of.)
If the Cards leave a number of “big names” exposed and they aren’t taken in December, then that would certainly say something. On the other hand, if some valuable players are lost, it could be too late for them as Cardinals.
This should be very interesting to watch…
P.S. The more I consider this, the more angry I am that they did not trade a prospect or two for some relief help down the stretch last season. The 2008 club was no worse off than the 2006 team, as the latter proved that once you get into the playoffs, the regular season record is immaterial and anything can happen.
P.S. The more I consider this, the more angry I am that they did not trade a prospect or two for some relief help down the stretch last season. The 2008 club was no worse off than the 2006 team, as the latter proved that once you get into the playoffs, the regular season record is immaterial and anything can happen.
There is a huge tell in last years non-move. You are seeing some of it in the Derrick Goold article yesterday. Its not about baseball, but the publics perception of the value of our farm system. I see something a brewing. Ankiel goes to Atlanta I think, for a young pitcher.
I doubt the Braves want Ankiel that much. They just got burned on a Texeira quasi-rental. Worse, I think from the Cardinals’ perspective, is that their young pitchers (Morton, Reyes) available for trade just aren’t very good. I would rather keep Ankiel and re-sign Looper for $6 million if it came to that. The Cards’ rotation looks pretty good for 2010 if Carpenter can get healthy, with both Garcia and Mortensen–and possibly McClellan–challenging for two spots. More likely, though, is I can see a whole passel of prospects going somewhere (Florida, Tampa, Texas?) for another pitcher of No. 2/3 quality next offseason.
As to last season, I do agree that we could have gotten some help on the left side. Whether it would have been worth it is another question, as only Will Ohman is a 2-win LOOGy. Adding him for half a season is only one win. Giving up less than Motte/Perez/Todd (the three most frequently talked about in a potential trade) means you’re getting a 1-win LOOGy. Not enough to move the needle in the standings, even if he is replacing a -2 guy in the bullpen.
As Brian knows, that is why I have been so critical of the front office in the middle of last year and this off season . We have to trade the outfielders that have the most value before the season starts, be it Duncan, Ankiel, Schumaker , Stavinoha or one or two of the minor leaguers. I would prefer it to be one of the lefthanders, Duncan, Ankiel, or both. If I thought we could sign Rick next year, I might feel different, but he wants to play centerfield and Colby can make the hardest catches Rick make ,, look easy.Even when Colby was struggling in Memphis last year with the bat, he played a great centerfield. As I have said before ,he might just be the fastest white boy I have ever seen . We should have made one of these moves last year, and we might have made the playoffs. There is nothing wrong with trading a good outfielder for 3 or 4 pitching prospects as the Cubs did with DeRosa. I am not usually out spoken , but our reluctance to make these moves, is stupid.
I’m pretty sure Ankiel is gone. The question is, who will we be getting? Someone as profoundly handled as Perdomo? Or a real pitcher.
I’m pretty sure Ankiel is gone.
I dunno. I’m pretty sure he’s not. Is there any evidence to support this pronouncement?
The Cardinals are going to have to get a lot more discriminating about the off-season 40-man (duh). Quicker to cut bait on guys like Hawksworth. Less room for maybes like Hoffpauir. A quicker hook for marginal major leaguers like Ryan. Just to name 3 who I predict there’ll be no room for by November.
Trading a prospect for a position player will only help if we trade multiple prospects or a position player and a prospect. Otherwise, you are just adding a guy who will be on the 40 man roster by trading a guy you would need to add to the 40 man roster.
Thanks for the good work Brian! You explained that real well, should be a pretty interesting 2009 for the Cardinals personnel.
I agree with CC about the need to trade multiple prospects and reading between the lines perhaps trading multiples prospects for one, the return would probably be better also.
Quantity for quality is a good deal if you can get it.
Nutlaw, that’s the big if…
CC, not to mention taking on more salary in the process!
Welcome bigchief!
Great article Brian. Always enjoy reading your stuff.
Thanks, 5129 and welcome. Hope to see you and the other recent arrivals posting often.
Gotta get me one a those nifty avatars to stand out amongst the crowd here. The Hamburglar appears to be taken. Damn!
RedC, here is the link to where I explain how to get a “gravatar”. It is really simple and the cool thing is that your gravatar follows you to other sites all over the web.
I’m pretty sure Ankiel is gone.
I dunno. I’m pretty sure he’s not. Is there any evidence to support this pronouncement?
Red, maybe just a educated guess. The Braves continue to need at least an outfielder. I believe there may be an agreement in place from back in Nov. They will let the cards deal with Boras before the trade takes place. Maybe a week into spring. Ankiel is a PR liability if he does good, valueless if his swing still sucks. My profile of BD say Rasmus is the CF. We will see soon enough. It doesn’t help that Boras continues to kick ass. 60 mill for a sinker ball pitcher reeks of desperation at the box office. They will be hoping for a Hamilton style player. They might have one if Rick gets a hitting coach.
testing to see if my gravatar works.
Very cool, UConn. Good to see you posting. You’ve been a bit too quiet lately.
The Hamburglar is taken, but Grimace is still up for grabs, RedC!