In a winter where St. Louis Cardinals General Manager John Mozeliak has already taken a lot of heat in the press for his various characterizations of the Cardinals plans to retool for 2009 and perceived lack of substantive action, another disappointment was received Wednesday.
According to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, the Cardinals have failed in their push to sign free agent infielder-outfielder Jerry Hairston, Jr. to replace lost utilityman Aaron Miles. Instead, the 32-year-old right-handed hitter spurned St. Louis’ offer to re-sign with ex-Cards GM Walt Jocketty’s Cincinnati Reds.
Skip Schumaker tries to take out Hairston at second base (AP/Bill Boyce)
Numerous St. Louis misses this winter include a failed trade for outfielder Matt Holliday, rumored losing bids for free agent closers Francisco Rodriguez and Brian Fuentes, a second-best, too-late offer for Miles after they non-tendered him in a questionable move and more.
Rosenthal says Hairston’s decision was more about the chance to start regularly at shortstop for the Reds than it apparently was about money. He signed a one-year deal for $2 million with a chance at another $2 million in incentives.
Thr former Baltimore Oriole (1998-2004), Chicago Cub (2005-06) and Texas Ranger (2006-07) is a decent top-of-the lineup alternative, something the Cardinals are lacking. Leading off for the Reds last season in 177 at-bats, Hairston’s line was an impressive .362/.427/.537. In 273 games leading off over his 11-year MLB career, his on-base percentage is .339. Defensively, he can play virtually all over the diamond, though he originally came up as a second baseman.
Walton’s take: In a continuation of a familiar theme this winter, the Cardinals continue to bargain shop and miss out. Hairston would have been a nice step up from Miles, but it isn’t going to be. Back to his Baltimore days as the Cards employed a revolving-door policy at second base, I had always felt Hairston would have been a good fit in St. Louis.
Apparently Hairston isn’t familiar with the recent histories of Adam Kennedy and Khalil Greene or Tony La Russa’s ample use of infielders in the outfield or he shouldn’t have had fear about playing time with St. Louis in 2009. Let’s hope it really wasn’t about the money.
The good news, if there is any, is that the Cardinals still seem to be trying to improve, though the size and therefore competitiveness of the Cards’ rumored bid to Hairston is unknown. Recent comments by Mozeliak have instead suggested the Cardinals may be content to stand pat until spring training.
Chalk Hairston up as another missed opportunity, albeit not a major one. Yet in a winter seemingly full of them, it provides one more data point.
I wish to invent a classification scheme regarding Cards rumors, because they come with varying degrees of credibility and feasibility. It can get confusing.
There are “courtesy under-bids”: we express our admiration for star players. Examples: Jason Schmidt; Andy Pettite; K-Rod. How can we tell a gracious underbid? There is no way on earth the Cards are going to sign Frank Rodriguez.
There are “serious bids for ambitious targets”: examples Fuentes and Holliday. But these are tough to win. They are long-shots.
There are “pay respect under-bids” for guys more expensive than we like, but we love the guy, so we want to pay respect for distinguished service while he is headed out the door. Examples: Morris, Miles, Matheny, Eckstein. We do not want to win the bid, so it too low, but we cannot afford to seem uncaring about a great guy.
There are “bargain bids for unexciting targets”: we signed Royce Ring, we did not sign Hairston. Not sure it matters. Why would we need Hairston? Barden or Thurston or Ryan can do the job.
I’m not so sure that Hairston is an upgrade over Miles anymore. The Cubs certainly didn’t think so, as they chose to pay Miles more when they were looking for savings.
I think this was a clear miss by the Cards…a competent ow cost solution to backup SS or 2b, and play the OF too…a leadoff guy with steal speed…for me this goes with the Affeldt miss as the only real missed opportunities of this offseason, save perhaps the Looper non arb offer. The miss of Alexei Ramirez last year is about the only other miss i have seen by Moz. I watched a lot of Hairston last year with the Reds and he was a very positive part of that team…
Regarding player comparisons, here is a quick and dirty using OBP and stolen base rates. Miles had a solid 2008, but Hairston was better. They are comparable over their careers only if you disregard the fact that Hairston can steal a base and Miles can’t.
OBP 2008
Hairston 0.384
Barden 0.222
Ryan 0.307
Miles 0.355
Thurston 0
OBP Career
Hairston 0.330
Barden 0.217
Ryan 0.326
Miles 0.329
Thurston 0.264
SB/100 AB 2008
Hairston 5.7
Barden 0
Ryan 3.6
Miles 0.8
Thurston 0
SB/100 AB Career
Hairston 4.5
Barden 0
Ryan 3.7
Miles 1.1
Thurston 0
Ryan has potential, but let me ask you this. If Kennedy goes down, would you be comfortable with 600 at bats of Brendan Ryan next season? Would La Russa? (I am pretty sure I know that answer.) Barden and Thurston haven’t yet proven they even belong on a 25-man roster and may never.
Barden could win a backup infielder role. He has played 3rd, SS, and IIRC 2B. Has a better bat than Ryan (Ryan is a better runner). Ryan has a year of AAA at bats, whereas Barden has 3 or 4, and has hit better at the same level. Ryan got a promotion to StL when Eck went down, so was blessed by Luck to be in the right place at the right time. But all 3 men (Barden, Ryan, and Thurston) seem AAAA types. Poor Thurston has spent even more years at AAA than Barden.
Has Barden had enough ML at bats to be included in a table with Miles and Hairston?
The Cards are normally a higher spending team than the Reds. If we really wanted Hairston, wouldn’t we win the bidding?
Barden has 44 ML at bats, Thurston 66 (in the latter’s case divided among 5 cups of coffee). Mano-a-mano comps of Hairston and Miles at the ML level have plenty of N; Hairston and Miles have about the same OBP for their ML careers.
IIRC, Hairston likes playing for Dusty.
Thurston has one huge advantage now that B. Barton is out of the picture. I will be so curious has to how this works out.
“But all 3 men (Barden, Ryan, and Thurston) seem AAAA types.”
Jumbo, on that we agree. I was hoping for a middle infield reserve who is a major leaguer as the starters were not exactly shaped from the Cal Ripken mold. There is still time to get another, but I did like the Hairston fit. Apparently so did the Cardinals… to a point.
What you regrettably call a huge advantage has not helped Thurston advance beyond AAA.
The reason the Cards signed Thurston is he could provide a lefty bat off the bench. Like Barden, he has a chance to make the roster.
Hairston played for Dusty in Chicago in 2005. Probably why he landed in Cinci in 2008, sought by Baker. Had a good year. If the price were right, he should want to stay put.
Here is a thought. The Cards and Reds are divisional competitors. Would the Cards place a bid on Hairston in order to try to lift his cost to the Reds, who openly wanted to retain him?
I wont suggest a Hairston bid is as far-fetched as one for K-Rod. But its still a little surprising.
Brian Barton clogged the roster all year long on a very very weak rule five claim. I think the neo con is community minded. He doesn’t want a racially lopsided team in a diverse area like St. Louis. It seems like an unimportant idea, but Thurston signing is peculiar to me. Just a hunch.
Brian Barton was a well-regarded Indians prospect, whose name prominently appeared on pre-Rule-5 draft lists as likely to be selected by some team. The Indians left him unprotected since he was recovering from knee surgery. The Cards were pleasantly astounded Barton was still available when they got a chance to pick. And Barton’s knee proved fine.
Barton filled a niche on the roster: right swinging platoon outfielder. He hit fine, given limited at bats.
Thurston was acquired for the same reason as Miles: he can swing from the left side.
“I wont suggest a Hairston bid is as far-fetched as one for K-Rod. But its still a little surprising.”
Would it be any more surprising than offering Miles two years at a higher base per year than the Reds are guaranteeing Hairston for one year (w/o incentives)? Guess it would depend on the structure of the Cards offer, but it seems they allocated a couple of million for a middle infield reserve and they were too scared of paying more in arbitration to take a chance on keeping Miles.
If Hairston was “Plan B”, we’ll have to see if there is a “Plan C” other than play the guys they have.
We let Womack go to the Yankees for only $4mm/2 and he was a starter. We told Grudzielanek he could have $1million to be a starter. We invested $1.3M in Spivey to start. We twice passed on arbitration to Miles, holding him to $1.4mm last winter. For such reasons, I find it hard to fully accept the Cards would budget $2mm for a backup infielder or want to give him 2 years. We like short deals.
Instead, on balance, I guess we had to take on a cost increase of $3.7mm at SS and one way to pay for this is to save $1mm at backup infielder by saying goodbye to Aaron. TLR may respect Miles and be truly pained to lose him, but Mo would be more pained to pay Miles or Hairston. Though I would not put it past Mo to pain Jocketty by making the Reds shell out more for Hairston. After all, the Reds were a pain on Yorman, so they more they spend Stateside, the better.
I think the guy no one is talkign about is Tyler Greene….who looked pretty good in the AFL this year..definitely my sleeper pick to get that utility spot out of spring training..he was playing SS/2b/3b and has the power to provide off the bench which Ryan/Barden/Thurston seem to lack…he is a pretty slick fielder too…how bout a Greene to Greene double play combo (at least against lefties when undoubtedly Kennedy will probably sit)…seems like a Baseball Tonight web gem waiting to happen and be said!
Tyler has all the tools to be a very good MLBer..if he can stay healthy and cut down on those K’s he coudl be a pretty special ballplayer…with the fielding prowess of a SS at 2b and some nice power he could surprise a lot of people…if he wouldnt have been sidelined by those injuries he could be right up there with Colby as our top prospect right now..remember he was only picked one pick after him right…paid more too i think?
I ant wait to see him at spring training!
jager, not sure if you read our capsules on Greene when we ranked him recently at Scout. I may have been the harshest on his near-term chances. He’d have to be lights out to have a real shot in spring training. Even Jeff Luhnow has him slated to return to Memphis.
That’s one reason I grind my teeth over D’Angelo Jimenez and Joe Thurston-type signings. I doubt Greene will get enough ABs in major league camp to have a chance to prove himself. Too many others ahead of him, not that it would be a crime to head back to Triple-A.
i read the Scout stuff… but i still think his AFL performance might be a real benefit for him… he might just get a bit more of a look…especially if he shows that power in spring training..we have plenty of guys to play SS there and TLR might want to keep Greene and his upside off the bench… of all the guys in the fall/winter leagues that made a statement that would garner possible movement in the system i think it was Greene… TLR seemed sour on Ryan last year…Barden didnt get much of a look when called up either… if Ryan and BArden dont show something special and Tyler keeps showing his tools well, he may just get that spot…Thurston seems liek D’angelo to me..jsut a veteran (ish) emergency type…he could surprise some people too..but i think he was brought in to push Barden/Ryan/Greene and see who comes out looking best… esepcially after the non-signing of Hairston i think we are really gonna be looking at one of those 3 for the MI spot…it may just come down to who is the bets hitting guy vs lefties…might be a good article to compare our possibilities at our “other” starting position left unfilled at the moment…
Starting 2bman vs. lefties….
a comparison of Kennedy,Greene,Barden,Ryan,Hoffpauir,Thurston…looking at avg,slg,obp,ops. and anythign else worthy…
Jumbo, you seem to be pretty well in formed. Its good to hear Brian and you discuss the minor league prospects. Its good to have another Pirate. You remind me of a good Beau………………….its hard to change cadence sometimes isn’t it.
Tyler Greene has had enough at bats at AA, but few at AAA and those few were not good. He is in a situation like Shane Robinson. He needs a full season at AAA. If he sits on the bench in StL as a backup, it would not help develop his career potential.
D’Angelo Jimenez was a signed as depth for Memphis unless there were injuries above him. When Miles came into St Louis, he too was regarded as lowly and destined for Memphis. However, as fate would have it, Spivey failed and Miles manned-up. With that memory, Jumbo prefers not to look down his nose at lowly Thurston or Barden. Randy Flores, Schumacker, and Ryan Ludwick are more examples of minor league vets who have contributed in the majors. Ryan Franklin finally reached the majors with Seattle at age 28. Thurston, Barden, and Ryan each have a chance to make the team, competing for one or two slots. Since I happen to root for long-serving guys, I welcome this.
One way to look at the middle infield is we have nearly $10mm committed to K. Greene and Kennedy. KGreene could be a massive upgrade over Izturis, yet there is no free lunch, he costs $3.7mm more. To pay for the upgrade at starting SS, we can save some salary on the backup by seeking the next Miles.
Jumbo, Isturias was paid 5.5 last year wasn’t he? Doesn’t the 3.7 add up 9.2? Did I read the Cots information wrong?
Cesar Izturis? Should have been about $2.8mm, iirc. KGreene costs $6.5mm.