Back on December 10, I published my forecast on which of the eight eligible St. Louis Cardinals players would be offered a contract and which would be cut loose. The group is those who had accrued from just short of three years up to six years of Major League service time and are not already under contract for 2009.
I was correct on six of the eight, but missed on Aaron Miles and Tyler Johnson, both of whom were non-tendered by the organization. Randy Flores was also cut loose as expected. Miles signed with the Chicago Cubs last week while Johnson and Flores are free agents.
| Arbitration-eligibles | Pos | Service | Prediction | Actual |
| Ankiel, Rick | OF | 5.033 | Offer | Offer |
| Duncan, Chris | OF | 2.144 | Offer | Offer |
| Flores, Randy | LHR | 4.130 | Non tender | Non tender |
| Johnson, Tyler | LHR | 3.005 | Offer | Non tender |
| Ludwick, Ryan | OF | 3.109 | Offer | Offer |
| Miles, Aaron | MI | 5.027 | Offer | Non tender |
| Thompson, Brad | RHR | 3.110 | Offer | Offer |
| Wellemeyer, Todd | RHS | 5.009 | Offer | Offer |
What’s up now?
For the five Cardinals players remaining, the next window of opportunity began on Monday, January 5. Starting then, these eligible players have ten days to declare their intent to head toward arbitration.
While you may read a lot of hoopla about this filing period, it is merely a formality. All eligible players will certainly file, since in not doing so, they would foolishly give up their arbitration right. (Of course, they could agree to terms on a new contract at any time, which would also take them out of this process.)
What’s on deck?
The next milestone is far more important, as those players who choose to prepare for the possibility of a hearing must exchange 2009 salary figures with their clubs on Monday, January 19.
The player offers his figure, which is almost always highest, and the club presents their amount, the lower of the two. Between then and the actual time of their February arbitration hearing, the two are encouraged to negotiate an agreed-to amount, almost always somewhere in the middle.
In every case, the player will receive a raise. The only question is how much. An important consideration is what other players of comparable results and experience have received in the past. More on that shortly.
In some situations, the sides come to agreement on a multi-year deal instead, but the formal arbitration process is structured around a one-year contract only.
An example of the former is Yadier Molina, who was arbitration-eligible one year ago. Instead of going through the entire process, on January 21st, he and the Cardinals settled on a four-year contract with a fifth option year.
If the two parties can’t come to terms, a three-person arbitration panel will choose one of the two amounts submitted, with no compromise. Supporting arguments are offered by both sides at these hearings, scheduled between February 1 and 21.
Remember that only 12% of all filed cases actually make it to a hearing and many more situations are resolved prior to the filing date. For example, last season, just eight of 110 players who filed went to a hearing, while all the other eligible players came to terms ahead of time.
Forecasting the 2009 Cardinals
So with that backdrop, let’s estimate the potential 2009 value of these five eligible players: Chris Duncan, Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, Brad Thompson and Todd Wellemeyer.
In every case, I will compare the Cardinals’ statistics to players at the same position who had roughly the same service time one year ago. That allows me to use the latter’s 2008 salaries to help estimate what the Cardinals’ 2009 amounts might be.
Remember that I am estimating where the two sides might settle, with the club’s filing potentially lower and the player’s desired amount likely higher. Performance bonuses are included in the Cardinals’ 2008 salaries shown below and could be a contract component for any players that settle prior to arbitration.
When service time is noted, it is listed in “years.days”, where 172 days equals one full season.
Chris Duncan
Though the oft-injured outfielder hasn’t been productive since the early part of 2007, I am comparing his career stats with five other players who were “Super Twos” one year ago. As in the case of all these comparisons, the other players’ numbers listed are their career totals prior to 2008. In other words, their stats at the time they were in the same position as Duncan is now.
Four of the comps are outfielders while the fifth, Casey Kotchman, is a first baseman, a position Duncan also plays at times.
| Arb-eligible | Service | AB | Runs | SB | HR | RBI | BA | OBP | SLG |
| Chris Duncan * | 2.144 | 887 | 139 | 4 | 50 | 143 | 0.266 | 0.353 | 0.487 |
| Matt Diaz # | 2.157 | 774 | 93 | 9 | 21 | 89 | 0.320 | 0.357 | 0.473 |
| Mark Teahen # | 2.155 | 1384 | 208 | 30 | 32 | 184 | 0.274 | 0.340 | 0.429 |
| Casey Kotchman# | 2.144 | 764 | 93 | 6 | 19 | 111 | 0.267 | 0.341 | 0.415 |
| Ryan Church # | 2.152 | 997 | 126 | 12 | 35 | 153 | 0.271 | 0.348 | 0.462 |
| Jonny Gomes # | 2.160 | 1110 | 163 | 22 | 58 | 163 | 0.242 | 0.335 | 0.465 |
| * pre-2009 | |||||||||
| # pre-2008 |
Duncan has demonstrated more power than all the comps, with Jonny Gomes perhaps closest. Yet the Tampa Bay outfielder is a part-timer. The two from the group that were more established starters coming into 2008 were Mark Teahen of the Royals and Ryan Church, then of the Nationals and now of the Mets.
Those two were also the only ones of the five comps who progressed in the arbitration process last year as far as exchanging amounts with their clubs, listed on the far right of the following table. They ended up with salaries in the low $2 millions, while the three others settled for less than $1.5 million last winter.
| 2007 | Service | Contract ($M) | Player | Club |
| Matt Diaz | 2.157 | $1.23 | ||
| Mark Teahen | 2.155 | $2.34 | $2.90 | $1.90 |
| Casey Kotchman | 2.144 | $1.45 | ||
| Ryan Church | 2.152 | $2.00 | $2.45 | $1.75 |
| Jonny Gomes | 2.160 | $1.28 |
Because of his injuries and the resulting uncertainty, I would place Duncan’s 2009 value somewhere around $1.5 million.
Ryan Ludwick
The 2008 All-Star and Silver Slugger winner only has two comparable outfielders from last year with between three and four years service. Therefore, I added a third player, Xavier Nady, who had just over four years coming into last season.
| Arb-eligible | Service | AB | Runs | SB | HR | RBI | BA | OBP | SLG |
| Ryan Ludwick * | 3.109 | 1175 | 184 | 12 | 65 | 209 | 0.273 | 0.345 | 0.512 |
| Brad Hawpe # | 3.058 | 1425 | 197 | 8 | 63 | 256 | 0.282 | 0.373 | 0.491 |
| Xavier Nady # | 4.059 | 1674 | 210 | 14 | 62 | 226 | 0.272 | 0.327 | 0.441 |
| Alex Rios # | 3.130 | 2000 | 308 | 61 | 52 | 254 | 0.288 | 0.338 | 0.453 |
| * pre-2009 | |||||||||
| # pre-2008 |
Toronto’s Alex Rios is more of a multi-tools guy with a longer track record than Ludwick. Nady is less productive than the Cardinal. Probably the best comp is Colorado’s Brad Hawpe, with a little better batting average and on-base percentage, but a bit less power.
| 2007 | Service | Contract ($M) | Player | Club |
| Brad Hawpe | 3.058 | $3.93 | $4.35 | $3.58 |
| Xavier Nady | 4.059 | $3.35 | ||
| Alex Rios | 3.130 | $4.84 | $5.65 | $4.54 |
Last year, Hawpe asked for $4.35 million heading into arbitration while the Rockies countered with $3.58 million. The two sides settled on $3.925 million. Hawpe has just one top 25 MVP placement and no All-Star or Silver Slugger-type recognition but has been more consistent over time.
Given that, somewhere around $4 million would seem a good place for Ludwick.
Rick Ankiel
As was the case last year, the uniqueness of Ankiel’s career progression means there are no rock-solid comps for him. Still, there were two MLB-5 outfielders last winter, or three if you count Casey Blake, who is primarily a third baseman but also has played the outfield extensively. For illustration, I added a fourth outfielder, Minnesota’s Michael Cuddyer, who was at that time just a couple of weeks short of five years of service.
| Arb-eligible | Service | AB | Runs | SB | HR | RBI | BA | OBP | SLG |
| Rick Ankiel * | 5.033 | 585 | 96 | 3 | 36 | 110 | 0.270 | 0.334 | 0.515 |
| Juan Rivera # | 5.047 | 1492 | 193 | 8 | 60 | 233 | 0.291 | 0.340 | 0.473 |
| Craig Monroe # | 5.105 | 2449 | 338 | 19 | 104 | 388 | 0.256 | 0.303 | 0.446 |
| Casey Blake # | 5.138 | 2768 | 401 | 29 | 107 | 366 | 0.262 | 0.332 | 0.444 |
| Michael Cuddyer # | 4.157 | 2097 | 320 | 23 | 72 | 299 | 0.270 | 0.346 | 0.450 |
| * 2006-08 as OF | |||||||||
| # pre-2008 |
To be fair to Ankiel, I included his hitting stats only from his time as an outfielder, excluding those from his days as a pitcher. The Cardinal’s slugging is superior to the others, while his average and on-base marks are credible in comparison to them.
In terms of counting stats in a single season, the story is different however. Two of the five have hit as many as 25 home runs as Ankiel did in 2008. That was Craig Monroe’s 28 in 2006 and Blake also with 28 back in 2004. Compared to Ankiel’s 71 RBI last season, Juan Rivera has topped him once, Monroe and Cuddyer twice each and Blake three times.
| 2007 | Service | Contract ($M) | Player | Club | Long term |
| Juan Rivera | 5.047 | $2.03 | |||
| Craig Monroe | 5.105 | $3.82 | |||
| Casey Blake | 5.138 | $6.10 | $6.90 | $5.40 | |
| Michael Cuddyer | 4.157 | $5.00 | $6.20 | $4.70 | 3yr/$24M |
Ankiel should be able to argue that with more at-bats, he could eclipse the counting stats generated by either Blake or Cuddyer. But that is future potential, not what has been accomplished to date.
While a look forward isn’t fair for this exercise, it is worth looking into Rivera’s situation in a bit more depth. After not quite reaching 300 at-bats in total over the past two seasons due to injury, as a free agent, he recently scored a three-year, $12.75 deal to return to the Angels. Rivera’s 2009 salary will be $3.25 million.
Monroe is currently a free agent and will make considerably less in 2009 than his $3.83 million last season, as his career is on a downward spiral.
For 2009, one might conclude that Ankiel could make as much as Rivera or Monroe, but having not completed more than a full season as an MLB outfielder, not as much as the far more established Cuddyer or Blake. Let’s call it no higher than $3.25 million, since Ankiel’s career number of at-bats remain considerably less than the others.
Of all the estimates, this could be the most volatile. Remember that Ryan Howard made $10 million as a Super Two last year after winning a hearing in which the Phillies had offered $7 million. Is Ankiel worth less than half of that?
Brad Thompson
When choosing comps for the right-handed swingman, I had 25 relievers who were MLB-3’s last year to choose from. I selected the seven who had progressed far enough in the arbitration process to exchange figures with their clubs.
| Arb-eligible | Service | W | L | IP | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB |
| Brad Thompson * | 3.110 | 18 | 11 | 305.2 | 4.24 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| Michael Wuertz # | 3.007 | 12 | 6 | 217.2 | 3.56 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| Dave Borkowski # | 3.138 | 13 | 18 | 310.1 | 5.68 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.8 |
| Geoff Geary # | 3.098 | 13 | 4 | 267.1 | 3.94 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 2.0 |
| Scott Proctor # | 3.010 | 14 | 10 | 258.1 | 4.18 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.9 |
| Matt Guerrier # | 3.056 | 3 | 8 | 248.1 | 3.19 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| Pedro Feliciano # | 3.059 | 10 | 5 | 197.0 | 3.20 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 2.1 |
| Vinny Chulk # | 3.106 | 7 | 11 | 232.2 | 4.29 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.9 |
| Kevin Correia # | 3.027 | 11 | 14 | 288.0 | 4.03 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 |
| * pre-2009 | ||||||||
| # pre-2008 |
It seems pretty clear that a player like Thompson should expect to make around a million dollars plus or minus. Brad’s ERA tends to the high side and his strikeouts are low, so despite his stingy walk rate, I would aim for an even $1.0 million.
| 2007 | Service | Contract ($M) | Player | Club |
| Michael Wuertz | 3.007 | $0.86 | $0.98 | $0.75 |
| Dave Borkowski | 3.138 | $0.80 | $1.10 | $0.75 |
| Geoff Geary | 3.098 | $1.13 | $1.25 | $0.95 |
| Scott Proctor | 3.010 | $1.15 | $1.30 | $0.93 |
| Matt Guerrier | 3.056 | $0.95 | $1.15 | $0.75 |
| Pedro Feliciano | 3.059 | $1.03 | $1.20 | $0.88 |
| Vinny Chulk | 3.106 | $0.84 | $0.98 | $0.73 |
| Kevin Correia | 3.027 | $1.08 | $1.30 | $0.85 |
Todd Wellemeyer
Again, this one is a bit tricky since Wellemeyer has over three years as a reliever and less than two as a starter. Given his current role is that of a starter one year from free agency, I used that population. Unfortunately, there was but one MLB-5 starting pitching comp from last season, now-free agent Oliver Perez. I added the three MLB-4 starters from last off-season to fill out the analysis.
| Arb-eligible | Service | W | L | IP | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB |
| Todd Wellemeyer* | 5.009 | 22 | 19 | 433.2 | 4.42 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 |
| Oliver Perez # | 5.034 | 45 | 53 | 805.1 | 4.43 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 |
| Nate Robertson # | 4.065 | 42 | 55 | 832.2 | 4.60 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 2.0 |
| Chris Capuano # | 4.045 | 42 | 48 | 711.2 | 4.39 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 2.4 |
| Claudio Vargas # | 4.157 | 43 | 38 | 666.2 | 4.95 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 |
| * pre-2009 | ||||||||
| # pre-2008 |
Perez is one of the eight players across MLB that actually made it to his hearing, where he defeated his employers at the time, the Mets, to the tune of $6.5 million. Yet it could be argued that Perez is more accomplished than Wellemeyer.
Of the three career starters with one fewer year of total experience, Detroit’s Nate Robertson scored a three-year deal with a $4.25 million salary the first season, while a pair of Brewers, Claudio Vargas and injured Chris Capuano, each ended up with under $4 million.
| 2007 | Service | Contract ($M) | Player | Club | Long term |
| Oliver Perez | 5.034 | $6.50 | $6.50 | $4.73 | |
| Nate Robertson | 4.065 | $4.25 | 3yr/$21.25M | ||
| Chris Capuano | 4.045 | $3.75 | |||
| Claudio Vargas | 4.157 | $3.60 |
Based on these comps, I would estimate between $3.75 million and $4.25 million for Wellemeyer for 2009, settling for the midpoint of $4.0 million.
Summary
Here are the projected differences in salaries from year-to-year for these five. Who said arbitration isn’t expensive?
| 2008 salary |
2009 estimate | Possible raise | Increase % | |
| Ankiel | $0.975 million | $3.25 million | $2.3 million | 236% |
| Duncan | $0.439 million | $1.5 million | $1.061 million | 241% |
| Ludwick | $0.421 million | $4.0 million | $3.579 million | 850% |
| Thompson | $0.414 million | $1.0 million | $0.586 million | 142% |
| Wellemeyer | $1.2 million | $4.0 million | $2.8 million | 233% |
| Total | $3.449 million | $13.75 million | $10.301 million | 299% |
If these estimates are anywhere near correct, the Cardinals could end up committing an incremental amount of over $10 million in 2009 just to keep these five players wearing the Birds on the Bat this coming season. On the average, their raises would be just under 300%.
Several tips of the cap are offered. One is to arbitration expert Bill Gilbert, who has provided valuable consulting assistance on the process. Another is to Lee Sinins’ Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, the source for partial career data, as well as answers to a million other questions, too. Finally, a nod to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, always an invaluable resource.
I used to use $1 million for place holders for Duncan and Thompson’s 2009 salaries but stopped because everyone told me I was crazy and they’d never earn that much!
Is career performance or last year’s performance more determinant in determining the arbitration amount? If so, I think Ludwick, Wellmeyer, and possibly even Ankiel may make slightly more than estimated while Duncan may make less. Regardless, current injury status is definitely on the list of arbitration eligible considerations and that may hold Duncan down a bit.
After looking at the nums, it seems like $1M is the opening bid!
Yes, the previous season is most important, but the aperture gets pretty narrow when trying to find comps. Some of the nums start looking funny. In my first draft, I had the top three with about a million more each, but tamped them down after more thought.
Career does matter some. Look at last year. One of the Ankiel comps, Juan Rivera, held his salary flat at just over $2M despite getting just 43 ABs in 2007 due to injury.
This is certainly an inexact effort, but interesting to consider.
Thanks for a great analysis. For many fans (including me – a Cards fan for 60+ years) there’s always been a lot of confusion about how arbitration works, and this time around it seems even more important, with Ludwick, Ankiel, and others involved.
Thanks and welcome, geezer! Yes. there is a lot of money at stake. For most of these guys, this is a first (or second) step down the path toward the possible big payday of free agency, which occurs when they hit six years of service time.
very nice work..I was tryign to figure this out in my head yesterday…i had a total of 12mil for Ank/Lud/Welle…i was thinking about 1mil for thompson and duncan reach (like Carioca)….seems like i was a bit high for the trio…i like your analysis, im going with it from this point forward…
if we add this arb money to the committed contracts so far we have:
73,670,000m + 13,750,000m = 87,420,000m
subtract from 100m (as our base total) and you get 12,580,000m left to spend
-i won’t factor in the league minimum (or close) guys even though their money does matter it is difficult to anticipate the total cost since the number will rise due to how long each is up on the big league roster
what can that buy us? what do we need? what is available?
needs:
SP
Closer
LHP (another?)
2b (maybe?)
12.5m i think can get us a SP for around 8m and leave 4.5m or so for a short term closer or maybe even a 2b…maybe we coudl get Kawakami and his friend Uejara and be squared away on 3 (Uejara has some experience closing right?)…maybe we could even get Saito and go over a bit?
how about:
Kawakami=3yr 24m…7.5-8-8.5
Uejara= 3yr 10m…3-3-4
Saito= 1yr 2.5m (player option for 2nd yr at increase to 3m)
total= 13m
overall= 100,420,000m
that gives us a solid #4 or #5 in Kawakami, a possible LHP long man or #5 Sp in Uejara, and a proven closer with some arm issues in Saito… add to that a VERY public statement that we are interested in the Asian markets and their talent
i like it…but that’s just me
jager, don’t be so quick to discount your $12M estimate. As already noted, these nums may be conservative.
Lotsa possibilities, but I am less optimistic based on recent quotes. Going into the season with a $90M payroll (or whatever it would be without any further additions) would be a crime.
Another thing working against Ankiel is that past salary is consideration. I am assuming (but not positive) that the others on the list probably had a prior salary higher than Ankiel did this past season.
CC, without looking, I would imagine you are right about the others making more the prior year. Ankiel’s salary was unnaturally low last season because he had only 172 career ABs as an OF. Therefore, that 236% increase (or whatever it ends up to be) now looks huge.
In fact, four of the Cards five guys have some kind of weird complication. Ankiel hasn’t been an OF long. Ludwick just emerged. Duncan has been hurt. Wellemeyer recently converted. Only Brad’s case is vanilla and even he is a swingman, neither full-time starter or reliever.
I would guess that Duncan would except a low ball offer, and not risk conflict. Ankiel is unlikely to attempt a full on Boras frontal attack at this point. I think they Ank/B know that he is not really established as yet. (Little interest in the trade market) To force the situation and risk a possible bailout trade that might be difficult emotionally could endanger the relevances of free agency next year which Boras covets so much.
Welly will get paid but once again Oliver Perez and Boras made easy work of the Mets last year when they tried to low ball him.. The Bids in that situation should be interesting. If the Cards lay back too far, Welly is just liable to take them to town. They have to be close enough to create a happy median.
Looking at Wellemeyer’s numbers, I’m not sure that he stacks up quite that well. It would be odd to see him make more money than Ankiel and Ludwick, though I certainly understand the reasoning behind it.
Please check out this Rick Hummel article from today, Wednesday, 1/7: link to the Post-Dispatch.
He sat down with Mo, and here is the conclusion:
Seen anything like that before? Good timing, eh?
I’ve decided I’ll go with the over on Ludwick and the under on Duncan. I’m still undecided on Thompson, Ankiel and Wellmeyer.
The Hummel article seems a little odd. The Cards know very well how the whole salary and arbitration gig work. Yet Hummel is telling the story of rising salary costs for players under arbitration, as if this is something new.
So what is the real story behind this article? The Cards are concerned, as everyone should be, about an unfolding economic contraction that has momentum. They had been planning to hold the line at around $100million in salaries; maybe they will rethink this and pare back a bit. If so, Hummel is helping prepare the fans.
CC, when you come up with your predictions, post them here. We’ll see who is closest to the pin. Same offer to any others daring enough to put your ideas in print!
(I already had Ludwick down for an 850% increase. It will be interesting to see if you can go up 1000%. Mind-boggling!)
Jumbo, as you know, the average fan is not as attuned to the arbitration story as those posting here, for example. So maybe the P-D was looking for a 100-level article on the subject. Or maybe Hummel’s editor stopped by here yesterday and just decided it was a good story idea.
Seriously, certainly all the story lines coming out of the front office in recent days signals the $100 million may now be too high. We shall see, but I admit I am losing my optimism.
Based on these comps, I would estimate between $3.75 million and $4.25 million for Wellemeyer for 2009, settling for the midpoint of $4.0 million.
He will make more than that. They would never come in that low. They may come in at 4.25 and take a chance that his agent balks and takes the median point. His number has to be at lease 5. I would expect there to be a million separating the two, at least.
Brian, why would i want to try to out do the master. Even if I say over or under doesn’t mean I think you are off by much. Besides, since I play to win I’d just employ the Jeopardy method and bid 1 dollar higher or lower anyway.
CC, you always make me nervous those rare times you offer a compliment. I start looking over my shoulder…
WC, I did have Welle at $5 million in my first draft but brought it down. I could certainly see him coming in at five and the Cards at four.
I didn’t write about it, but I did think about it when dropping my numbers. I have to wonder if there will be more cases heading to hearings this year, or at least going up to the last minute. After all, if the owners are nervous about money, which most seem to be, it should show up here in arbitration, too. Of course, the arbitrators are the wild card in the whole matter.
WC, I had forgotten to read the paper from the LA lawyer you referenced previously. I disagree with his fundamental recommendation, to get rid of the “all or nothing” approach to arbitration.
A number of his supporting points are faulty.
For example, he says because the NHL (which allow the arbitrator to select the players’ salaries) had seven cases last year compared to MLB’s eight, that means their approach is more efficient. That does not acknowledge the different sizes of overall population of eligible players between the two leagues. Without the various denominators, comparing the numerators only means nothing.
Further, he compares the one-year 82% rate of NHL cases settled before a hearing and compares that to MLB’s 88% long-term rate (since 1990) and calls them equally effective. Comparing one year to a track record of almost 20 years is not valid.
In my math book, 88% is better than 82% anyway, so why change to a process that leads to a HIGHER percentage of arbitration cases?
Here is the link to the referenced paper, “Meet Me in the Middle: Baseball’s Arbitration Process Needs a More Rational Approach”.
CC, you are right. I missed Wellemeyer by all of $50K.
WC, ready for some crow for dinner? He settled for $4.05 million. My forecast was $4.0. Yours was substantially higher.
I did miss by a mile on Duncan at just $825,000. Must be a lot of worry remaining over his neck.
nice work…so good on Welle…Duncan off a bit..but nice…im excited to see the rest
Yeah, not too shabby so far!
Brian, predicting what he would take in different than arbitration. His agent gave away a bunch of money. He just had to wait one more day, put in 5mill, and settle for 4.5. The Cards gave him some scare numbers and he took the bait. They would never have come in at less the 4. He blew it! They won. Its a game. He had a no lose scenario, a free whack. With Pujols interview, I look for the Cards to sign a pitcher, Garland I hope. That shoves Welle out next year anyway. Notice that Ankiel and Ludwick want to see the numbers. Since they never put out numbers you’ll need to put the tofu crow in the freezer…………………..I’m sure I’ll be getting hungry soon enough…….I also will know the inside Welle story. I’ll keep you posted.
The Duncan number was the minimum, the doubling of last years salary. He takes a chance of being cut if he tries for more.
WC, Duncan’s amount is actually less than double, there is no minimum increase, only a maximum reduction and there’s NO way he would be cut even if he had asked for $10 million. He would just have lost and had to accept what the Cards offered. Even if so, they would never release a valuable asset over a difference of opinion of value. No way. Especially given who it is we’re talking about, the situation would never have gotten that far anyway.
For Wellemeyer, a few hundred thousand one way or the other now won’t matter much next year. If he continues to pitch well and improve, he will score a fat multi-year deal from some other club. Considering all the Cards have done for his career, rescuing him off the scrap heap and converting him into a useful starter, Welle probably decided not to fight them here. That is his personal prerogative. If he is happy with four million and change, which he must be since he settled quickly, then good for him. According to the comps I presented, which you apparently do not accept, the amount seems about right. You are clearly welcome to disagree, but I will stack my facts up against your point of view anytime.
Welle’s quote in the P-D: “I knew I was going to get somewhere around that number, and I didn’t see any reason to just drag it out.” Elsewhere in the article, Goold mentions that Ankiel could have a deal in place by tomorrow (Wednesday).
Thompson $650,000.
A bargain.
http://www.azcentral.com/sports/diamondbacks/articles/2009/01/20/20090120spt-arbitration.html
i just read via mlbtraderumors that brad thompson avoided arbitration by getting 650,000…i 350k under your prediction…hmm i wonder if the market will drive down these arb figures more than we thought…luddy and ank left
The Cards did for him? Or them selfs? I tend to see things from a player perspective. Its just business. All of my ranting was a hope to see the Cards do business publicly. They still haven’t.
“Thats what I was going to get anyway?” Thats not true. In the most conservative estimate, he would have made more by at least waiting till tomorrow. Just in exposing their offer. That was bad representation. Period. If Boras and Ankiel are going to agree early, thats exactly what I expected. No one whats a hearing there. It also suggest Boras realizes that the Cards are trading Ankiel and that this years contract is just a formality.
easton and jager, thanks for the news (and welcome easton; it’s about time you showed up here!). Yes, I agree with you both. Brad is certainly a bargain at that price. Guess he’d better fire his agent, too. WC, maybe a second career is calling for you…
I just wish we could give Pineiro’s spot to Thompson. I like him just as much in that role and at less than a tenth of the cost. Yuck. I have been saying for a couple of years that Thompson would be just fine if annointed the 5th starter and given 25-30 starts.
A pitcher like Thompson (a moderate sinkerballer) is bound to be average 80% of the time (which is good), brilliant 10%, and terrible 10%. The latter 20% depend solely on the sinker. When Thompson’s sinker isn’t so sinky, he gets shelled. When it dives like crazy, he is brilliant.
Emotionally, I agree with you easton about Brad over Pineiro. However, the depth may prove to be necessary since we don’t know who will make it through March unscathed and there is no guarantee that even if the Cards pick up another “March special” starting pitcher, that he will prove to be any better than either Thompson or Pineiro, anyway.
In an ideal situation, I’d rather see McClellan or even Boggs get a shot in that spot starter role. They may have upside that two better-known quantities – Thompson and Pineiro – do not. Contracts and lack of options will likely preclude that, however.
If the depth would be there, would you pay some of Pineiro’s contract to try to attract trade interest? It would probably take some sweetener to get anything done. They more you have to pay, the more likely you’d just keep him unless they can find a partner in trade with an overpriced player of their own to do a two-way salary-dump trade.
Jmodene1 had a post over on Scout the other day saying he believed Pineiro (and Welle) would perform better if used more regularly in 2009. I looked at Pineiro’s game log and didn’t see anything unusual. He didn’t answer when I asked if there was something I missed. Anyone have a POV about that?
I would pay almost whatever it would take to move Pineiro at this point.
Depth is all fine and dandy, but $7.5MM is WAY too much to pay for any player who evokes conversations about ‘depth’.
Without Pineiro on the books, we would be able to sign Springer for $3MM or so, stretch out McClellan and battle for the rotation with Thompson, and have an extra $4.5MM to spend elsewhere.
I do not like the idea of stretching McClellan (meaning having him either make the ML rotation or the rotation in Memphis) without Springer. A bullpen without Springer and McClellan would be pretty risky.
Yep, but the $7.5 million is already sunk (or $7.5 minus what another club would be willing to assume), making the options on how to redeploy it basically moot.
The bullpen already seems risky to me, but Duncan must be less concerned since he has McClellan on a starter’s program at least initially. Of course, he can do the same as last year and pull McClellan back to relief, which seems to be the assumed step two unless there is trouble with the rotation.
What would I do sans-Springer if we tried to move Pineiro?
I’d eat $2-3MM of his contract and stretch out McClellan to compete with Thompson, sign someone like Brandon Lyon (or Juan Cruz, if we could get around the compensation) to shore up McClellan’s vacancy (and get some late inning experience).
It wouldn’t leave much left over, but it would move Pineiro and allow for some upside in the 5th spot (if McClellan outshines Thompson). I still think someone like Randy Wolf would be a nice addition at that point.
Even better…
Eat $2-3MM of his contract, trade Ankiel for someone like Mike Gonzalez or Scott Downs, etc., put Colby in center on opening day, and have the cash to sign Perez (2 years plus an option) or Sheets (the upside play).
Wainwright
Perez/Sheets
Wellemeyer
Lohse
Thompson/McClellan/Boggs?/Todd (by mid-season?)
Gonzalez/Downs
Perez
Motte
Franklin
Kinney
Best LOOGY
Thompson/McClellan/Boggs
Nice scenarios, but probably wishful thinking. It would be interesting if the Cards were thinking that creatively (there goes that word again!), but I kinda doubt it. As an aside, don’t you think it is wishful to suggest that another club would want Pineiro if they had still to pay him from between $4.5 million to $5.5 million this coming season?
Yes! Of course!
It wouldn’t work at all if it wasn’t wishful thinking!
Also…I don’t know about any specific examples, but would the commish approve a deal with 50% or more of the remaining contract being sent in cash?
Don’t know about the cash rules in that example. I could probably find out if I could just believe it might actually have a chance of happening…
What about taking on a bad reliever contract or something…like the Marquis deal?
I am just thinking out loud. I don’t have any specific targets in mind. My priority would be clearing his roster spot as much as the salary. As long as he is healthy and Cardinal property, he will probably start (which is what I want to avoid). They won’t stick a $7.5MM contract in the bullpen. At least not for a while.
They actually did put Pineiro in the pen for a short time last August when Wainwright came back, so they might go back to it if Pineiro pitches poorly enough and everyone is healthy and ready to go. A lot of “ifs”, though…
I believe management is going to sign a starter in repose to Pujols “position statement”. That bumps KMac back to the Pen. It kills allot of birds. I like the Garland/Duncan combo. That should be doable on a 2yrs with an option deal. Garlands similarities to Lohse are numerous.
I enjoyed the chide on “occupations” Brian. I still can’t believe that you don’t get it. The negotiating posture that the Cards are using, is part of the problem here. I’ve seen it once big time. Their isolation and arrogance will eventually cost them. Pujols recent statements were the result of long and studied conversations about said topics and there implications. The closing paragraph was as flowery and sentimental as the earlier were warning shots to management.
None of your comparisons made it to arbitration except Perez. They did not even force the offer process. Perez’s median was over 5.66, at least. Take a million off of that. 4.66. He gave away money to be a good cardinal. If in fact the Cards are forced to go multi year with my mystery signing, Welle won’t even be looked at next year, even trade bait to slow starting Cardinal team.
WC, I have to agree that this prediction of yours will in fact come to pass. I am referring to the Cards signing another starter.
Of course, they already said they wanted to do that before Pujols’ comments. If/when it happens, you will point to it having been driven by Pujols. I will just think it was the plan all along and they finally found the right player at the right price.
Regarding comps, if you think only ones that can be used in a hearing are from players that actually exchanged numbers with clubs, I am pretty sure that you are mistaken. Since Perez was the only MLB-5 starter last year period (to exchange numbers or not), the comp population had to be expanded. No one would dare come into a hearing with only one comp. “Eggs all in one basket…” It would be easy to blow a hole in that narrow of a case, whether either brought forward by player or club.
We should agree to let Welle go. That deal is done.
Yes they do evaluate multiple comps, IF they are brought into play. My whole point, is why not see the numbers? Howard 18mill? Verlander 4.87era 11/17 asks for 4.15. Howard will lose this year, but he still gets 14, because he continues to force a market comparison. Have you heard Ludwicks numbers or Ankiels.
Ludwick: $4.25 million, Cardinals: $2.8 million (midpoint: $3.525 million)
My earlier estimate: $4 million (will probably end up too high if they settle pre-hearing)
Actual salary: TBD
Ankiel: $3.3 million, Cardinals: $2.35 million (midpoint: $2.825 million)
My earlier estimate: $3.25 million (will probably end up too high if they settle pre-hearing)
Actual salary: TBD
The gap in Ludwick’s case is especially large, indicating a wide gulf to try to bridge before a February hearing. Ankiel expressed optimism to the Post-Dispatch that he may be signed by tomorrow (Wednesday). Looking at these nums, I am not so sure.
WC, it may be time to admit you just misread the market (worse than I did). It isn’t a grand conspiracy or anything. It is reality. If the players truly believe the Cards low-balled them, they can go to hearing and let the arbitrators decide. That is their right.
Not bad, Brian…especially for clearly not knowing what the hell you are talking about.
Lets clear this up…………….. over a million separates the sides. Thats what I would have suspected especially in Welle’s case from the Cardinals. If Ludwick had any balls, he takes them to arbitration. The Rbi’s make it an easy win. The Cards clearly figure that the separation saves them money on the median. I would hang them……………… Your about to see if Boras is pissed. If he takes Ankiel into the hearing, the damage will be to Ankiel in the end……..lets see ………. I haven’t misread the market. I could care less. This is purely from my own experience. Howard has an Agent. He went to 18 mill, trying to get separation. He pulled them to 14 million out of fear. They will settle this time at 16. I’m curious if Ludwick has developed an attitude. Welle gave away money by not waiting a day.
[...] Tuesday’s arbitration amounts for outfielders Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick and my reaction to the earlier post where I had predicted the final salaries for the [...]
[...] will be paying $12,050,000 for these five players this season, up from just $3,449,000 in 2008. My forecast was high at $13,750,000 primarily due to overshooting on Duncan’s and Thompson’s very modest [...]