The Sunday Japan Times mentions a report in the Chunichi Sports paper that may be important to St. Louis Cardinals fans concerned about the club’s perceived slowness in acquiring another starting pitcher.
The article notes that the pool of MLB teams in the hunt for what they call one of two prize Japanese free agents, former Chunichi Dragons ace pitcher Kenshin Kawakami (pictured in both photos, AP), is down to three clubs: the Baltimore Orioles, St. Louis Cardinals and Minnesota Twins.
A MASN report out of Baltimore confirmed the O’s interest in the right-hander, but the writer did not know the terms of the club’s offer. He did mention that the deep-pocketed Boston Red Sox were previously considered to be stiff competition for Kawakami, but interest has cooled substantially since the Sox signed Brad Penny last week. The offer the BoSox were considering was rumored to be three years, $21 million.
A Friday report from the Baltimore Sun debunked a rumor that the Orioles made their “final offer” to Kawakami. Several days prior, a Japanese network reported that the O’s were worried about the pitcher’s shoulder and had offered agent Dan Evans an incentive-laden contract at a lower base than the agent was looking for.
Mid-December reports from Japan also mentioned the San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Milwaukee Brewers as having been interested in Kawakami.
The other top Japanese free agent is Koji Uehara, 33 years old like Kawakami. He has both started and closed for the Yomiuri Giants. The Times wonders out loud why speculation about his prospects for the majors has been quiet as of late. The paper expected that Uehara should have been signed by now by an MLB club. Earlier rumors had Texas making him an offer of $10 million for three years and the Orioles reportedly coveted him as a starter.
In referring to either player, it did not seem to me that any of the reports acknowledged the general slowness of the market.
For additional information on both players, check out my post from December 18. (Note: Hitoki Iwase, mentioned in that report, has since signed a four-year deal to remain with Chunichi, according to NPB Tracker. (Iwase was Kawakami’s teammate and closer for the Dragons.)
In December, the Cardinals signed another Japanese pitcher, left-hander Katsuhiko Maekawa, who is expected to be a minor leaguer in the US. (links to related articles one and two)
Additionally, Kawakami’s career stats are listed below. Since having been selected as the top draft pick by Chunichi in 1998, he has pitched for the Dragons ever since.
The right-hander has not suffered a losing season since 2001 and has been durable prior to 2008, when he missed time due to an illness and with a strained back. (I could not find any mention of shoulder problems.) His career strikeout to walk ratio of 3.78-to-1 is impressive.
| Year | G | CG | Starts* | W | L | IP | Hits | HR | BB | K | Runs | ER | ERA |
| 1998 | 26 | 4 | 21 | 14 | 6 | 161.1 | 123 | 14 | 51 | 124 | 48 | 46 | 2.57 |
| 1999 | 29 | 3 | 22 | 8 | 9 | 162 | 173 | 20 | 43 | 102 | 84 | 80 | 4.44 |
| 2000 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 60.1 | 65 | 10 | 20 | 24 | 32 | 32 | 4.77 |
| 2001 | 26 | 3 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 145 | 153 | 12 | 36 | 127 | 61 | 60 | 3.72 |
| 2002 | 27 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 6 | 187.2 | 170 | 13 | 34 | 149 | 54 | 49 | 2.35 |
| 2003 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 53.2 | 60 | 2 | 14 | 37 | 22 | 18 | 3.02 |
| 2004 | 27 | 5 | 22 | 17 | 7 | 192.1 | 173 | 27 | 38 | 176 | 72 | 71 | 3.32 |
| 2005 | 25 | 3 | 22 | 11 | 8 | 180.1 | 186 | 20 | 28 | 138 | 75 | 75 | 3.74 |
| 2006 | 29 | 6 | 22 | 17 | 7 | 215 | 166 | 22 | 39 | 194 | 74 | 60 | 2.51 |
| 2007 | 26 | 0 | 26 | 12 | 8 | 167.1 | 175 | 18 | 23 | 145 | 72 | 66 | 3.55 |
| 2008 | 20 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 117.1 | 99 | 11 | 25 | 112 | 33 | 30 | 2.30 |
| Totals | 257 | 29 | 214 | 112 | 72 | 1642.1 | 1543 | 169 | 351 | 1328 | 627 | 587 | 3.22 |
* Starts total does not include complete games.
YouTube video on Kawakami on the mound.
Thanks for the update Brian. Hopefully Mo can make this happen.
Since Kawakami has generally been a starting pitcher, maybe he would enable the Cards to move Carpenter back into the role of closer.
I am hoping Kawakami (or whatever starter is signed) will bump Pineiro out of the rotation.
As a aside, I fear the La Russa comments on Carpenter will get blown out of proportion. What I heard him say was that IF there was a way to know that pitching in the closers role would be better for Carp than starting, THEN he would use the pitcher in that manner.
What was NOT said is that no one knows how to make that determination. My gut says that it will be more a matter of being able to pitch or not, rather than the issue of whether he can throw 100 pitches in a day versus 30.
But we shall see. I would just hate to see folks get all excited about Carp the closer when we don’t know if he can pitch pain-free at all.
Jumbo – can’t move a guy “back” to where he’s never been.
Well, CC, there was that weird announcement when TLR said he’d use Carpenter as his once-per-series closer. Of course, Carp never actually pitched in that role (or any other) after that!
Carpenter experienced a nerve/muscle issue in September 04 and a reoccurrence during summer 2008. He was a starting pitcher in both instances. In 08, he had efficiently reached the 6th inning. I do not recall the inning in 04, but it was probably beyond 50 pitches.
Isringhausen and Eckersley were starting pitchers who converted into closers and enjoyed much success. John Smoltz is a more recent and non-Cardinals example.
TLR and DD say they do not want to count on Carpenter to start in 09, but they would like to get him back. This means the bullpen. Is your Cy Young awardee going to setup converted catcher Jason Motte? In a word: no. If there is no Brian Fuentes to close, then Carp is their new closer.
If DD/TLR can make a starter out of long-time closer Braden Looper, and a closer out of career starter Dennis Eckersley, they are unafraid to make changes.
The Carpenter situation has sowed some confusion or uncertainty among fans. Some say he is done.
After the first nerve issue in 04, Carpenter threw a lot of innings in 2005 and 2006, with much success, including one Cy Young award. Clearly, he can come back from nerve problems.
If doctors cannot reliably predict Carp would have a better chance to relieve versus start, then there is no relevant medical opinion, one way or the other. TLR and Duncan are practical people. When confronted with uncertainty, they will do what makes sense. A lot of guys move to relief because it is less stressful on their arms. Carpenter is a team leader. You want him contributing, even if it is no longer as a starting pitcher.
Jumbo, your conclusion illustrates my concern perfectly. Just because the manager and pitching coach don’t want to count on the pitcher to be in their rotation does NOT mean they are penciling him in as closer.
To me, it simply means they want another starter. They have no way (nor do any of us) of knowing if Carp can pitch AT ALL, in any role.
Izzy and Eck converted to closing due to non-medical reasons as I recall, and if so, aren’t relevant to Carpenter. Smoltz did have some kind of arm concern that led him to move to closing, but when push came to shove, Smoltz wanted to start again and did.
I would be very interested in any research on this question of which role is better for a pitcher’s arm, starting or relieving. I wonder if there is anything conclusive.
Eckersley threw about 2,500 innings in the majors, before converting to reliever. For comparison, Carp has thrown 1,500. Eckersley was more ingrained as a starter, when his career path shifted to the pen.
Can Carp pitch “AT ALL”? 2005 and 2006 strongly suggest that he can return to pitching. The frustrating problem with his injury is not that it is catastrophic, but murky and elusive. Its not diagnostically straight-forward, like a broken bone. It may be hard to remedy.
You wonder about medical research or statistics as it might pertain to his ailment. I would imagine there will not be simple answers. So the Cards will probably have to make decisions under uncertainty.
Something we know is Carpenter will be paid $45million over the next three seasons. The Cards would like to get something for this. Carpenter is a New Hampshire man who likes to earn his paycheck, not collect $45 million in disabillity.
If Carp does not try to resume starting, he must relieve. If he relieves, he must be the closer. This fits with TLR’s view of the world. Carpenter is a team leader. He is a mature adult. He has the diversity of pitches, control, and composure to excel as a closer. It would be absurd to anoint Perez the closer, if a Cy Young winner is available in the pen.
A key question regarding 2009 is whether the Cards try Carpenter as a starter or as a reliever. Medical science may not be able to provide a clear answer. Baseball men will have to use their best judgment, one way or the other. The key question has to be answered.
Good thread. Brian, you’re recognizing the duplicity of Carps exploitation by management and Tony’s pulling and pushing this position to fill his needs. The questions are……
1. Was there an insurance policy on that contract extension?
2. If so, what is its Value and or conditions for claims?
3. Does Carp feel like going the year on anti-inflammatory meds which are hard on the body? Which he is pretty much obligated contractually to do I might add.
Its seems that Carp is hoping for a fully functional recovery. When will he recognize and come to grips with those probability’s?
[...] under: hot stove — erik @ 4:01 pm Tags: kenshin kawakami Hat tip to the ever vigilant Mr. Walton for this [...]
WCbD = why are relevant questions? They probably have little bearing on how Carpenter is used or what the Cardinals will do.
btw, what probabilities are you talking about?
The only scenario I can see where Carp could relieve but couldn’t start would be if his shoulder hasn’t regained strength. However, if the nerve is responding to treatment he will gain strength. If its not, he likely won’t have the strength to pitch in relief. If the shoulder has gained the strength to pitch, there should be nothing that keeps it from building the endurance to be a starter.
A key issue regarding Carpenter’s use in 2009 is the unpredictability of his injury reoccurring. One doctor proposed an operation, but Paletta said there was no guarantee against the thing flaring up again.
Given this uncertainty, the Cards could say, we have missed Carpenter for two years. He is a team leader. Lets be risk averse and try him on the easier workload of pitching relief. We do not want him to lose a 3rd year in succession.
Then if Carp has a good 2009 and if Chris Perez or Motte continue to improve, then by 2010, we could turn closer over to young relievers and return Carpenter to starting.
Jumbeau, that ignores the realities of his injury. why be risk averse with something that it appears use will not make worse (and may even help).
You suggest use of Carpenter will not make his injury worse. Does this not make an assumption into an assertion? I would not define Carpenter as presently suffering an injury. He will probably be fine when he starts tossing in February, just as he was when he began tossing last summer. With months of rest, the problem subsides.
Carpenter is suffering from a neurological vulnerability and a problem can flare up, unpredictably, owing to the exertions of pitching. It may not be possible for a doctor to design a use regimen that precludes reoccurrence.
The Cards have to decide: do we use him in his most valuable role as starter and aggressively hope for the best, or do we subject him to less physical stress via the role of reliever?
Good analysis Jumbo. Those are some of the probabilities CC.
We don’t know if the Cardinals aren’t receiving some millions a year on an insurance policy. Money that Billy might like to keep instead of Carp taking up a roster spot and under preforming. He might have to admit that his Career is not about kicking butt, but enduring a lot of pain and medication just to contribute when a closer is needed. It may never feel good again.
Regarding the optimistic thought that the Cards will sign a free agent who will bump Pineiro out of rotation……
I doubt it will happen this directly. DeWitt probably holds Mo and TLR responsible for their personnel decisions. They wanted Pineiro, so now they must use him. No going back to the boss asking for more millions of dollars to spend for the exact same position. Mo and TLR would lose face and DeWitt will not approve their request.
So is there anything that could displace Pineiro? An injury. Or bad performance such that his roster slot is given to an up and coming minor league starter.
If the Cards sign Kawakani or another free agent starting pitcher, he is probably justified on grounds of lowering the workload for Chris Carpenter. The health vulnerability of Carpenter becomes the rationale for turning him into the veteran closer that TLR needs. Carp is Plan B. But right now, this cannot be disclosed to the public; it would be premature,since contingent on watching Carp throw. It can only emerge during spring training.
Quote:
Carpenter is suffering from a neurological vulnerability and a problem can flare up, unpredictably, owing to the exertions of pitching. It may not be possible for a doctor to design a use regimen that precludes reoccurrence.
The Cards have to decide: do we use him in his most valuable role as starter and aggressively hope for the best, or do we subject him to less physical stress via the role of reliever?
/ End Quote
The only way to insure that the role of reliever is less physically stressful than starting is to limit the relief appearances to be no more frequent than a starter pitches Starters pitch a warm-up between their starts, so to be on a similar schedule Carpenter would pitch/relieve one day then two days rest before pitching again and be on that schedule no matter if it is a save situation or not. So this would not be a typical closer job. And two thirds of the games, someone else must be available to close,
Back to Kenshin Kawakami (I like highrent’s nick name for him of Double K), I wish this had not become public. Things like this seem to happen for the Cards when it is a surprise not previously speculated or rumored.
I expect the Cards would be fine with Carpenter in a limited role as part-time closer. In fact, this is something TLR hinted at last summer, after the nerve problem arose. Tony was probably trying to a way for Carp to be playable (hah).
A part-time closer role would allow save opportunities (learning opportunities) for McClellan, Perez and others. Carp would be a mentor. He would provide the veteran leadership TLR thinks is important during an interim period, before others develop enough to better assume the duties of closer.
Carp has been out of action the past two seasons. We have him under contract for three more. A part-time closer role would be a way to ease Carp back into competitive play, while making a valuable contribution.
The team used Carpenter aggressively last season. He was brought on line as a starting pitcher and touted as the reinforcement in lieu of a trade. And unfortunately he broke down. For 2009, a part-time closer role would be a more conservative approach with Carpenter that has the supplementary benefit of serving a team need (that it was willing to pay $17million to Fuentes to serve).
Oquendo, great points on the frequency of when Carp may and may not be able to pitch. It will be interesting to see how this progresses. As I noted earlier, TLR said the same kinds of things about conserving Izzy last season, but in the heat of battle, may have overused him right out of the gate.
I also wanted to comment on the news of the Cards interest in Kawakami becoming public. Remember that all this began when Mo himself took a deep public bow after meeting with the agent for Kawakami and Uehara in Las Vegas at the Winter Meetings. He obviously decided the PR value of pursuing Japanese free agents was more valuable than the risk of fan disappointment if he again fails to sign anyone.
I am a bit worried that Baltimore will offer more years, though their rumored concern about his health might be a good signal for the Cardinals chances. Minnesota has a pretty good young rotation already so might be less aggressive unless they are planning a trade. If it will take three years to get Kawakami, the Cards may not want to go there, since they already have Carp, Waino and Lohse on multi-year deals of three years or longer.
They are also less than 12 months away from having to make a major decision on Wellemeyer. If they do go long-term on Kawakami, that might seal Todd’s fate next off-season. Something else to consider. All things equal, I suspect they’d rather get a one-year 2008 Lohse-type of bargain, something that wouldn’t happen until much later.
Jumbo, why do you say Carp was used “aggressively last season”? I don’t see that at all.
He was scheduled back in July. He made two rehab starts in the minors (7/20 @ 62 pitches, 7/25 @ 78 pitches) and returned to the majors on July 30. He made three starts before getting hurt again. They were 67 pitches, 51 pitches and 67 pitches again. The first two starts were six calendar days apart and the second two were five days apart.
After missing three more weeks, he pitched one inning at the start of September and was shut down. What is aggressive about that?
(If you are going to try the argument that he should have been given more rehab work, I do not buy it. Inherent in that assumption is that the pitcher will somehow not try as hard in the minors or use less of his repertoire than he would in the majors. Especially with this pitcher in this situation, I disagree completely.)
Its probably impossible to prevent rumors about negotiations, because agents will leak to stir up more competition for their clients.
Or teams will engage in tactical leaking, with either accurate information or misinformation. Teams are not supposed to share information about their bids; this would be collusion. However, a possible way around this prohibition is for teams to leak bid information. Via such informal not for attribution rumors, teams can telegraph to one another where the bidding is. Given the lack of public bidding, this may be important.
The Braves want to be known as in the hunt for Kawakani too. Atlanta has budget to spend.
The (present regieme of) the Cards wants to be known for being internationally open-minded. They hired a scout to cover Asia a year ago. It seems unsurprising the Cards will follow up and court a few veteran free agent pitchers from Japan. While D-Mat got great publicity and was expensive, it less known that Boston also obtained a southpaw reliever who has been effective and cheap. Veteran Japanese free agent pitchers can provide good value.
A reply to Brian….There is probably a question of what the word “aggressive use” means. This may sound pejorative to you, whereas it is for me a neutral characterization.
For perspective, after Matt Morris had TJ surgery, he spent one entire season as a set-up reliever, IIRC. This might be called a conservative pace of re-introduction to pitching. The ensuing season, Morris returned to starting and had his career year.
With Carpenter in 2008, Mo and others said last winter they were counting on the return of Carpenter and Mulder by mid-season to, in effect, save the day. This was the message to the fan base. By July, this was also the explanation for eschewing a trade for a pitcher like Blanton (who put the Phillies in the winners circle) or Harden (who helped the Cubbies).
Starting pitchers usually build up endurance given 7 weeks or so for spring training. A starting pitcher will conventionally make 5 or 6 appearances, before onset of the regular season. Since the Cards were in the midst of a pennant chase, they did not feel that they had this abundance of time. Thus, as you note, Carpenter made just two minor league starts, before entering the fray.
I would NOT suggest Carpenter’s use was medically unsound. I would NOT assume and opine the accelerated pace caused Carpenter’s neurological problem to flare up. But I would certainly say Carpenter was aggressive in trying to return to action and the Cards made a consistent point of saying Carp’s return would be a key aspect of their stretch drive (and justified eschewing trades). In saying this, I am only taking the Cards at their own words. A lot rode on his ASAP return.
This I would term aggressive reliance on Carpenter.
Consider another TJ case. Kenny Maiques has the operation in May/June 05. He tried to return to pitching in about July 06 at State College. He made one start and must have suffered some tearing of scar tissue or something. In any event, Maiques shut down after the one game and did not resume pitching until 2007. Maiques was on a Carpenter like pace, but then suffered a problem and got shut down to the next spring. The Cards were not touting him as key to the 2006 success of the State College PA squad.
The words one hears now from the Cards suggest they might want to take a more conservative approach to Carpenter in 09. They might spend millions of bucks on another starting pitcher for the stated purpose of lowering expectations about Carpenter having to be the key to their season. In public relations terms, this seems prudent. If the Cards rely on him just as they did last season and if the neuro-problem reoccurs, as no one can say it will not, then the team would run risk of looking clueless, making the same mistake in back to back years. 2009 would be a good year for a different, more cautious approach. See if Carp can valuably contribute as a part-time closer. If he has a fine season in this more limited capacity, then he might be considered for starting in 2010.
Beau, yes, I consider the use of “aggressive” to have a negative connotation since the player’s comeback was a bust. There are too many second-guessers out there with few facts and a lot of speculation questioning the decisions made by the medical staff and club officials to let it pass. (Not referring to you personally.)
Carp was throwing bullpens in March and to live hitters in April. He was pitching in simulated games in June, then had a setback mid-month, not unusual in TJ recoveries, I think. Given that, was his late July return “aggressive”? I don’t know as I am not Dr. Andrews or Paletta, who examined him at that time.
All along, the plan was to return in July. That never changed and that is what happened.
The word aggressive could be replaced with “reliant.” The Cards plans envisioned Carp’s return. You have asked why trades were not made to reinforce the team? The Cards planned on Carp’s return. With the subsequent return of the neurological dysfunction, they have probably studied this more rigorously than in 2004 and have a fuller appreciation of its murkiness and his vulnerability.
Uncertainty about Carpenter probably allows Mo make a case to DeWitt that the team needs to invest in more starting pitching. This would be to protect Carp by trying him in the less-arm-stressing role of part-time closer. Hiring another starting pitcher could kill two birds with one stone: it fixes the closer “problem” and the prudent use of Carp “problem” at the same time. Hire a Japanese pitcher and Jeff feels like he is contributing too. Its a win, win, win for all concerned.
“Carpenter is suffering from a neurological vulnerability and a problem can flare up, unpredictably, owing to the exertions of pitching.”
Talk about turning assumptions into assertions!
My take is that Carpenter has had nerve issues whenever he has had layoffs. I believe it is lack of use and not overuse that has caused his problems. I am speaking from my reading of the Carpenter situation and my own nerve issues that I’ve gone though.
Reading Beau’s post reminded me of the possible timing connection between Carp’s July 30 return and the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline. Considering that, the return might have been timed for PR reasons since no trades were forthcoming.
Still, the team needed pen help more than anything. While Carp’s return seemed positive at the time, it didn’t fix the blown saves problem nor get TLR his coveted RBI man.
The return of Carp and Mulder were to re-inforce the rotation. The later return of Wainwright would provide the closer.
Carioca: Carp first experienced the nerve problem in September 2004, by which point he had thrown probably 180+ innings that year. (You may be transferring your personal health experiences though they do not sound as if they apply. You may be thinking Carp’s problem has been brought on by a year away from pitching and hence owe to underuse.)
Carpenter’s situation sounds different. He seems vulnerable to neurological signal transmission problems to muscles in the arm. It should not be a muscular problem per se, as in muslces atrophy or can be built up via use, but rather electrical signals within his neurological system. Knowing how this communication problem occurs between brain and muscle may be hard to determine with confidence.
Since pitching is a violent exertion, the stress of pitching occasionally causes a neuro-signal problem (Sept 04; August 08). Reduced rather than more innings probably improves the chances the problem will not return. This is why TLR mentioned the possibility of Carp as an occasional closer last summer, after the injury. TLR wants to lower the stress on Carp’s vulnerability by reducing innings.
Since Carp is the only pitcher with this problem, there is not a lot of experiential data to indicate a preferred use of a pitcher. So we have to rely on best guess and best guess would be fewer innings, reliever rather than starter.
Uehara signed with the Orioles
Here’s the link. Pretty scary that even with the signing, the O’s have only two starters.
This is just my intro post to get Brian to approve my registration. I’m glad to have a new place to learn more about the Cardinals!
Welcome, sport!
The Os may have Guthrie, Uehara, and Hendrickson. They are said interested in Kawakami, our friend Braden Looper, and Redding.
Uehara was $5 – 8 million per year including performance incentives. That could be the size of deal required to land Kawakani.