Ever since Mark Teixeira signed with the deep-pocketed New York Yankees for eight years and $180 million this past week, articles have appeared all over the country as writers begin to agonize over what this means to the market value of Albert Pujols.
I may be in the minority, but I don’t think this news substantially changes anything with regard to the long-term relationship between Pujols and his employer, the St. Louis Cardinals.
One angle could be played that the Teixeira deal may actually prove to be a slight positive for the Cardinals and their fans.
Other than playing the same position, Tex, while a very fine first baseman, is not in Pujols’ class. Few if any current players are.
Tex said “goodbye” to the Angels (AP)
Still, Teixeira is now committed to be the Yankees’ first baseman from now through the 2016 season. As a result, the highest-spending club in the majors would seemingly have no room to play Albert, even if he reached free agency and they wanted to sign him.
Could they dump Tex in a few years down the line? Perhaps, but it would be difficult. In addition to all that money, Tex scored a full no-trade clause in his new deal.
Not all that long ago, the Yanks bestowed a lot of money on the doorstep of one Jason Giambi. Though they later regretted paying Giambi over $20 million per year, they ended up having to hold onto him anyway.
The defensively-challenged Giambi did serve a lot of time as the designated hitter, but when a team is engineered around aging veterans as are the Yankees, there are many more DH candidates than there are places to play them.
Now, one might argue that there are other clubs that could and would pay one player $33 million, especially one with the resume of an Albert Pujols. That is true. The Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers and Angels certainly come to mind, though the latter just lost both Tex and K-Rod to the New Yorkers.
Yet it is impossible to ignore that the most formidable prospective competitor to the Cardinals if Albert hit the free market, the club that sets prices for all the others, just took themselves out of the first base market for the next eight years.
How did I come up with $33 million?
It is very simple. It doesn’t require a lot of deep statistical comparisons. We already know Albert is the best player in the game. Therefore, he should be paid as such. Teixeira and other lesser players’ salaries are completely irrelevant.
Today, that player is the Yankees’ Alex Rodriguez, who will make $32 million in both 2009 and 2010. In what is a surprisingly realistic structure in an out-of-this-world contract, A-Rod’s annual salary will actually decline as he moves into his mid-to-late 30’s to “just” $20 million per year in 2016 and 2017.
In my view, for the Cardinals and Albert, the only question remains “when?”
Pujols is under contract for the next three seasons, all at his 2008 rate of $16 million. (Technically, the final year, 2011, is a team option.)
The Cardinals have two basic options with Albert:
1) Act now, making a serious offer to extend Pujols for essentially the remainder of his career.
As is customary in these kinds of deals, the Cardinals would likely need to increase the amounts to be paid Pujols in each of the 2009, 2010 and 2011 seasons, despite them having him already under contract at the bargain $16 million rate.
That could easily add another $30 million or more to the extension – money that would not have to be spent.
There are several other risks inherent in this move. One is medical, the other financial.
They relate to the case of Pujols’ balky throwing elbow. If the recent nerve relocation surgery doesn’t alleviate the constant pain or if his ligament finally gives out, Pujols would likely miss an entire season recovering from “Tommy John” elbow ligament replacement surgery.
Would you rather see the Cardinals pay Pujols $16 million on his current deal or $33 million under a new contract to spend a year off the field while rehabbing?
2) Wait and see what the future holds and delay making a new offer for a year or more.
Here, the risk for the club is the market. In few years, the top salary dog may not be A-Rod. It could be someone else, but likely not. Let’s face it, there does not seem to be the next Albert in the on-deck circle. This is what may be a one-in-a-lifetime player.
For Pujols, the only risk is his health. Salary-wise, the reason he is underpaid today is because he opted for the security of a long-term deal earlier than was required. He may not be so inclined to leave money on the table like that again.
That is why I believe, as painful as it will feel to some fans, the best business decision for the Cardinals and for Pujols himself is to wait and talk contract in a couple of years.
A lot can change between now and then… or maybe nothing will.
Clearly, letting Pujols hit the open market is not an option while he’s still a viable player. I couldn’t even imagine how devastating losing him would be.
I’m positive Albert has opinions about management. I sure he is watching very closely how the team conducts its business this year. So far, no good.
Pujols may want to wait to see if TLR re-ups, retires, or manages another team. I think Albert’s loyalty will be with TLR before anyone else, other than his family. If Albert let it be known he would be more likely to sign an extension if TLR was re-signed for several more years, would the biggest TLR critic be against it?
Tony traveled to San Diego. Tony traveled to Las Vegas. As its stands right now, Tony is gone. He will become a GM “else where”. As of this moment he remains trouble to management. If he walks away complaining, that will expose things about BDe and Mo that they seem especially paranoid about. (Ray Ms, conspicuously timed pro-management reminder today)….
I for some reason dread the Chris Duncan conflict of interest. The Holiday maneuverer was an attempt at killing Tony’s predilection for platooning by bringing in Rasmus as the unchallenged CF. If they don’t make an outfield trade now, that is a very bad sign to me. Scapegoats in the making.
I haven’t disclosed my top story projections for 2009 yet, but TLR’s status is clearly right up there. I disagree 100% on TLR being a GM, unless you mean that in an informal advisory way like today. He has managed for 30 years in the majors. That is what he does and loves. Old ARF dogs aren’t learning new tricks. TLR is just 300 wins behind McGraw for second all-time. If he continues to manage, that is what he will go after. He is “only” 64, so has some miles remaining if he wants to use them.
Oqie, I am not as sure as you about the strength of Pujols’ allegiance to TLR. They like and respect each other, sure. I thought TLR himself put it very well at the Winter Meetings. Though the comment was in reply to an Ankiel question, it illustrates the reality that the business of baseball is what ultimately reigns supreme. TLR clearly understands and accepts that.
Bottom line, I don’t think TLR stays because of Albert and I don’t think Albert’s decision will be predicated on Tony. I’ve seen no reason to believe that Pujols wouldn’t be just as happy playing for Oquendo, for example.
Coming back around to WC, I do agree that if the Cardinals cease to be competitive over the next few years, then Albert could sour on management. Wouldn’t blame him. Don’t think that will happen, though…
If TLR reupping is a condition for Pujols re-signing than he can go elsewhere as far as I’m concerned. That has nothing to do with my feelings for TLR and everything to do with my being a Cardinal fan. If Pujols’ loyalty is to his manager and not the franchise and the fans then I won’t care if he goes elsewhere.
Yeah, I always thought that Pujols’ ties to the area were stronger than his ties to La Russa, for what little I know.
I tend to get all stations on my tv Brian. I saw an interview somewhere and Tony was talking about being a GM. The reason he was flying back and forth from the Bay area to SD everyday is that he has family issues that are very demanding. Dave Duncans innuendo’s about needing things from management were dead serious and shared by Tony, I know……. Thats why he got paid well to stay on. As I have said in recent months, Albert’s situation isn’t going to be just about money.
I really think you all need to research your owner a little bit. He just came into some serious cash if I’m not mistaken. One way or another we will witness a fascinating story this year.
wc loves to make innuendos with no real declarative statement, then comes back later and says, see, I told you so.
I don’t believe Pujols is so short sighted that he will leave if TLR is not the manager. The Cardinals continually missing the playoffs is an entirely different area of thought though. These next 2 years loom large, imho, with regards to signing AP long term and the teams ability to compete.
We know he doesn’t like high pressure press, so that is in favor of St. Louis.
I believe the Cards will work a deal with AP to keep him here, some point before the expiration of his contract.
I wish I enjoyed it more. These are things I am witnessing. Thats all.
I’m hoping the DeWitts are just creating alibi’s and good courtroom stuff for the collusion suit that the union will unquestioningly file in the coming year. Other than that I am stuck with the realization that Hard Hitting Derrick Goold got the GM and the President, and the Chairman in a room and pounded out the new confessions of worries about attendance next year, and the inevitable loss of income that might occur, somehow disavowing any correlation between attendance and success. I have said numerous times I believe they are headed toward 85 and small market status. I have said here that they would decide to keep a reserve, flexibility they call it, as an excuse for not spending the 100mill and a little more.
Let me say this. There was no reason at all for that article or those interviews to even happen. Its design and their participation, is a deliberate campaign of misinformation. There only goal, to soften criticism as the carry out there prearranged business plan, having nothing to do with baseball operations. If things get out of control, they will scapegoat MO, or Tony as he will make a fuss if they give him nothing…………………….. These are the exact same tactics used by the Bush administration in following Dick Chaney’s energy plan to Iraq and beyond.
In the end I could care less. I would just as soon watch the kids play. I very much dislike their tactics. In the end they will be exposed. Tony could cost them plenty, but then they pay him plenty. He might go quietly, but if Albert didn’t, it could crush them. If I were them, I wouldn’t worry about trying to Bribe Pujols with the big contract or extension. I would spend some now and raise the esteem of everyone by contending with some character. Pujols would want to play with a winner. Then 25mill a year would cut it. Green “Might” be an improvement. Spare me the other moves.
All I can say is that I have had this kind of debate a number of times before.
There were people around in 2000 and the next few years after that were convinced, I mean absolutely POSITIVE, that DeWitt and his dozen or so partners would dump the Cards in 2001 after five years of ownership and resulting tax advantages.
They never got to say “I told you so” because it never happened. They eventually disappeared, sort of like the numerous yearly predictors of the end of the world. You know, all the ones who claimed a miscalculation when the appointed day passed and we were all still here.
WC, I clearly do not listen to the same channels as you. What I heard most recently was at the Winter Meetings, when TLR said he is ready to go in 2009. If he has family problems and time commitment issues, why was that not very-newsworthy story picked up by any sources the rest of us can listen to or read about? Wouldn’t surprise me to find out the reason TLR returned home was for rehearsals for his yearly holiday performance of The Nutcracker with the Oakland Ballet!
What problems? I said considerations. My intension was to point out that commuting between Palo Alto and SD multiple times shows an intense interest in influencing Mo, with due respect to homeboy obligations.
Your right about the TV. It may have been on his Trip to New York on the off day. I don’t recall. I was laughing because it seemed an obvious roust of Cards management, before the Duncan extension.
Your time line for DeWitt is perfect. What else surprisingly happed at that time? Take a look at Bush’s special advisory group on Homeland security after they stole the election. I will tell you what that means buy e-mail sometime when I’m feeling crazy.
It already seems pretty crazy to link 9/11 to the Cardinals ownership’s (lack of) plans to sell the team… You might have had a chance at cred on this one if you had mentioned the new stadium or Ballpark Village, but that 9/11 stab is way, way up there in the ozone…
Carioca, do you expect any player to be more loyal to an organization (the franchise) or generic group of people (the fans) than the person who has mentored him his whole career? I’m not saying Pujols wouldn’t be loyal to STL and the fans, but I would expect his loyalty to be more with a person than a collection of anonymous people.
I’m not saying that TLR will be the deciding factor in Pujols’ decision process, but I am pretty sure it will be one factor and part of that is his sense of the teams willingness to compete.
My question about TLR critics reaction to a Pujols statement in support of re-signing TLR was speculation. I certainly do NOT expect Pujols to make a very strong statement in support of the Cardinals re-signing TLR. But I was wondering if TLR critics would be willing to put up with TLR for years more in order to appease Pujols.
Last time I checked Brian, there was still a few feet left beyond the Ozone… before you get to the Pesky Pole that is.
302 feet away, as I recall…
I assume Albert is nobody’s sweetheart. If the Cards treat Albert with respect and can afford to give him a fair offer for 2012, he will choose to remain in St Louis. This could take in the neighborhood $30million.
Maybe we’re looking at the wrong question. If we assume that the Cards will pony up whatever necessary for Pujols, maybe the concern really is whether or not they will spend enough resources on the surronding cast to stay competitive.
If we concede that current payroll is about the right amount to stay competitive and they add $10 – $15 million to keep pujols, will they add that much to overall payroll?
Good point, CC. That raises two thoughts in my mind.
First is “when?” Is that $10-15M more in 2009 or 2012? The world could be very different in three years. (As an aside, I think it will be more like $15-$20M more per season!)
What is your take on my postulation that if they extend Pujols now, they may well be obligated to give him more money for the remaining years of his current deal, too?
Second thought is “do they need to increase payroll?” Consider the state of the farm system. A primary reason to build the pipeline is to have lower-cost replacements queued up, ready to drop in. I don’t mean for Pujols, but for the other spots on the roster.
For example, when Ankiel gets too expensive, slide in Rasmus for 3-6 years. Ditto for Wallace and Glaus, should be same for Perez and Izzy, etc…
If one believes the farm improves each year, it seems that the longer the Cards wait to add the additional salary burden of a Pujols extension, the more likely they can save money at other positions.
Thoughts? Opinions? Disagreements?
1. You think Pujols could get $36million AAV? I honestly think at that number you’ve got to think about trading him.
I think the base for the payroll number is more a relative number compared to other clubs.
2. I think whether they give Pujols more money on his current deal is semantics. They may do it to “even out” there payroll but I doubt pujols cares as he is already deferring money. The Cards may like the idea of having a cap on what the can sign another player for for a few more years.
3. I’m optimistic about the farm system but we must remember but a Luhnow draft has yet to produce a major league starting pitcher or starting position player.
4. I think the farm system may be peakling but that’s a long discussion for another day.
5. More related to point #1 but has any recently successful team ever had a player that was more than 25% of payroll? That made more than 50% of the pay of the next highest player?
If A-Rod can make $32 today, it is not out of this world to think Albert could fetch $36 in three years down the road, though my assumption above is $33.
Your question about one player versus his entire team is most interesting.
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